2024年7月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in July 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2024年7月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2024年7月监测到15种传染病在全球43个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。 对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件5个,中风险事件23个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件11个,中风险事件30个。
    结论 建议重点关注孟加拉国、泰国、斯里兰卡、新加坡和尼泊尔的登革热;一般关注洪都拉斯、萨摩亚、伊朗、阿根廷、巴西、科特迪瓦、加纳和法属波利尼西亚的登革热,尼日利亚、索马里、爱沙尼亚、刚果(金)和莫桑比克的霍乱,印度尼西亚、埃塞俄比亚、巴基斯坦的脊髓灰质炎,南非、泰国和刚果(金)的猴痘,尼日利亚的黄热病,越南的白喉,美国和以色列的西尼罗病毒病可能带来的输入风险。 建议出国旅行者重点关注孟加拉国、泰国、斯里兰卡、新加坡、洪都拉斯、巴西、科特迪瓦和法属波利尼西亚的登革热疫情,尼日利亚的黄热病和霍乱,越南的白喉;一般关注尼泊尔、萨摩亚、伊朗、阿根廷和加纳的登革热疫情,南非、泰国和刚果(金)的猴痘,非洲和亚洲的脊髓灰质炎,哥伦比亚和秘鲁的黄热病,非洲的霍乱,尼日利亚的拉沙热,蒙古的鼠疫和以色列的西尼罗病毒病可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside mainland China in July 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In July 2024, 15 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 43 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 5 high-risk events and 23 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 11 high-risk events and 30 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to prioritize monitoring dengue fever in Bangladesh, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Singapore, and Nepal, and to generally monitor dengue fever in Honduras, Samoa, Iran, Argentina, Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and French Polynesia; cholera in Nigeria, Somalia, Estonia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Mozambique; polio in Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Pakistan; mpox in South Africa, Thailand, and the DRC; yellow fever in Nigeria; diphtheria in Vietnam; and West Nile virus in the United States and Israel, to reduce the potential importation risks. International travelers are advised to focus on dengue fever in Bangladesh, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Singapore, Honduras, Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, and French Polynesia; yellow fever and cholera in Nigeria; and diphtheria in Vietnam, and to pay moderate attention to the possible risk of infection posed by dengue fever in Nepal, Samoa, Iran, Argentina, and Ghana; mpox in South Africa, Thailand, and the DRC; polio in Africa and Asia; yellow fever in Colombia and Peru; cholera in Africa; Lassa fever in Nigeria; plague in Mongolia; and West Nile virus in Israel.

     

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