1990-2021年中国与全球缺血性心脏病疾病负担特征及预测研究

Characteristics and prediction of ischemic heart disease burden in China and the world, 1990−2021

  • 摘要:
    目的 对比分析中国与全球缺血性心脏病的疾病负担特征及趋势,为我国制定有效防控措施提供依据。
    方法 从GBD 2021数据库获取中国与全球缺血性心脏病的死亡及伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALY)信息。 通过Joinpoint回归模型估算平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage of change,AAPC)以反映时间趋势。 构建贝叶斯年龄–时期–队列模型进行预测研究。
    结果 1990—2021年,中国缺血性心脏病标化死亡率从1990年的94.14/10万上升到2021年的110.91/10万,其增幅(17.81%)和AAPC0.49%(95%CI:0.23%~0.75%)均高于全球水平;标化DALY率从1990年的1771.13/10万上升到2021年的1856.51/10万,均低于同期全球水平,但其增幅(4.82%)和AAPC0.11%(95%CI:−0.09%~0.32%)均高于全球水平。 中国与全球男性缺血性心脏病的疾病负担及其上升速度均高于女性。 1990—2021年全球男女性的标化死亡率和DALY率均为下降趋势,而中国只有女性呈现一定下降趋势,男性仍明显上升。 缺血性心脏病的负担随年龄的增长而增加。 未来15年,中国与全球缺血性心脏病的标化死亡率和DALY率均呈下降趋势。
    结论 1990—2021年中国缺血性心脏病标化死亡率和DALY率从低于全球水平升至明显高于全球,且上升速度超过全球。 男性的疾病负担重于女性。 预计未来15年中国和全球标化死亡率和DALY率将下降。 鉴于中国缺血性心脏病的疾病负担仍较严重,加之人口老龄化问题日益突出,相关部门应持续制定和优化防控措施,尤其是针对男性人群,采用针对性的措施大幅降低缺血性心脏病的疾病负担。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To compare and analyze the characteristics and trends of ischemic heart disease burden between China and the world, and to provide evidence for effective prevention and control measures in China.
    Methods The death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of ischemic heart disease in China and the world were obtained from the GBD 2021 database. The average annual percentage of change (AAPC) was estimated by the Joinpoint regression model to reflect the time trend. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was constructed for prediction.
    Results From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized death rate of ischemic heart disease in China increased from 94.14/100 000 in 1990 to 110.91/100 000 in 2021, and the increase rate (17.81%) and AAPC (0.49% (95%CI: 0.23%−0.75%) were higher than the global level. The age-standardized DALY rate increased from 1771.13/100 000 in 1990 to 1856.51/100 000 in 2021, both lower than the global level in the same period, but the increase (4.82%) and AAPC 0.11% (95%CI: −0.09%−0.32%) were higher than the global level. The burden of ischaemic heart disease and its increase rate in men were higher than in women in China and globally. From 1990 to 2021, age-the standardized mortality rate and DALY rate of both men and women in the world showed a downward trend, while in China, only women showed a certain downward trend, while men still increased significantly. The burden of ischemic heart disease increased with age. In the next 15 years, the age-standardized death rate and DALY rate of ischemic heart disease in China and the world are on a downward trend.
    Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate of ischemic heart disease in China increased from being lower than the global level to being significantly higher than the global level, and the rate of increase exceeded the global average. The burden was heavier among men than among women. It is predicted that the age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate in China and globally will decline in the next 15 years. Given that the burden of ischemic heart disease in China remains relatively severe, coupled with the increasingly prominent problem of population aging, relevant departments should continuously formulate and optimize prevention and control measures, especially for the male population, and adopt targeted measures to significantly reduce the disease burden of ischemic heart disease.

     

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