1990-2021年海南省全人群疾病负担研究

A study of disease burden in entire population in Hainan province, 1990−2021

  • 摘要:
    目的 描述海南省1990—2021年全人群的疾病负担状况及其变化特征。
    方法 采用Joinpoint回归模型计算疾病负担相关指标的年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),分析1990—2021年海南省全人群疾病负担各项指标和前10位死因顺位的变化情况。
    结果 相比1990年,海南省2021年的年龄标化过早死亡损失寿命年率(ASYLLR)、年龄标化伤残损失寿命年率(ASYLDR)、年龄标化伤残调整寿命年率(ASDALYR)均下降,且变化率均低于全国值。 1990—2021年海南省全人群年龄标化死亡率(ASMR)呈下降趋势(AAPC=−1.74%,t=−13.247,P<0.001)。 男性ASMR由1 438.75/10万下降至877.32/10万,女性ASMR由950.71/10万下降至507.16/10万;男性ASDALYR由47 570.67/10万下降至26 773.83/10万,女性ASDALYR由38 566.29/10万下降至20 443.16/10万,均呈下降趋势。 相比1990年,脑卒中仍然是导致2021年海南省居民死亡的最主要病因,前10位死因新增了结肠和直肠癌、糖尿病。
    结论 与1990年相比,造成海南省居民2021年疾病负担较重的疾病依旧是心脑血管疾病和癌症,其中肺部癌症和痴呆的顺位上升幅度较大,建议针对上述疾病的危险因素进行早期干预。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To describe the disease burden in the entire population in Hainan province and change characteristics from 1990 to 2021.
    Methods Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) of related indicators of disease burden. The changes of indicators of disease burden and the ranks of the top 10 causes of death in Hainan from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed.
    Results Compared with 1990, the age−standardized rate of years of life lost due to premature mortality (ASYLLR), age−standardized rate of life years lost due to disability (ASYLDR), age−standardized rate of disability adjusted life year (ASDALYR) all decreased in Hainan in 2021, and the change levels were lower than the national levels. From 1990 to 2021, the AAPC of age−standardized mortality rate (ASMR) in the entire population in Hainan was −1.74% (t=−13.247, P<0.001), showing a downward trend. The ASMR decreased from 1 438.75/100 000 to 877.32/100 000 in men, and from 950.71/100 000 to 507.16/100 000 in women. The rate of ASDALYR decreased from 47 570.67/100 000 to 26 773.83/100 000 in men and from 38 566.29/100 000 to 20 443.16/100 000 in women, showing downward trends. Compared with 1990, stroke was still the most important cause of death in Hainan in 2021, and the top 10 causes of death in 2021 newly included colon and rectal cancer and diabetes.
    Conclusion Compared with 1990, cardio/cerebrovascular disease and cancer still caused heavy disease burden in the residents in Hainan in 2021. The ranks of lung cancer and dementia moved ahead obviously in the death causes. It is suggested to take early intervention measures according to the risk factors of the above diseases.

     

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