2017-2022年广东省佛山市多源数据流行性感冒特征分析

A multi-source data analysis on influenza epidemiology in Foshan, Guangdong, 2017−2022

  • 摘要:
    目的 探讨广东省佛山市2017—2022年流行性感冒(流感)流行特点及其受非药物干预措施(NPIs)的影响在2017—2019年、2020—2022年的变化特征,为当地流感防控提供科学依据。
    方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统和流感哨点监测网络,收集佛山市2017—2022年流感病例报告数据、流感样病例(ILI)及病原学监测数据,多维度比较流感的流行病学与病原学特征及其在实施NPIs前、期间变化。
    结果 2017—2022年佛山市流感病例、ILI、病原学监测数据总体均呈先升后降再反弹趋势,明显的下降趋势均出现在2020年;3种数据均提示,佛山市流感呈现冬季(12月至次年1月)大流行、夏季(6—7月)小流行态势,3种数据两两之间均呈正相关关系。全市5区年均发病率、ILI就诊百分比(ILI%)、病原阳性率年变化趋势地区间差异较大。 流感病例监测和ILI数据均提示,发病人群以<15岁年龄组为主,随年龄增长呈降低趋势;但病原学监测结果显示,5~岁组阳性率最高,15~岁组次之。 3种数据均提示流感在男性中更高发,发病数居前3位的人群职业依次为学生(34.53%)、散居儿童(27.16%)和幼托儿童(15.90%)。 实施NPIs前、期间流感流行病学和病原学特征对比显示,实施NPIs前流感发病率(186.88/10万)高于实施期间(117.98/10万);实施NPIs前ILI%(4.73%)略高于实施期间调整ILI%(4.72%);实施NPIs前病原阳性率(19.27%)高于实施期间(9.12%),优势病原谱也由A(H3N2)亚型和A(H1N1)pdm09亚型转换为A(H3N2)亚型和B(Victoria)系。
    结论 2017—2022年佛山市流感冬、夏季高发,重点关注<15岁人群。在实施NPIs后,流感的低发病水平、病原学阳性率的明显下降、病原谱的改变表明此类干预措施可降低流感流行强度。 选取的3种监测数据存在一定差异,建议结合多种数据综合全面分析流感疫情流行态势。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Foshan, Guangdong province, from 2017 to 2022, and assess the impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) on the incidence trend of influenza during 2020–2022 compared with 2017–2019 and provide evidence for the local prevention and control of influenza.
    Methods The reported influenza case count, influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance data, and etiological surveillance data in Foshan from 2017 to 2022 were collected through the information system of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the influenza sentinel surveillance network in Foshan. A multidimensional comparative analysis was conducted to evaluate the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of influenza and their changes before and during the implementation of NPI.
    Results From 2017 to 2022, the reported influenza cases, ILI cases, and influenza virus detections in Foshan first increased, then decreased and increased against, with significant drops observed in 2020. The data from three sources showed a positive correlarion, indicating that the annual incidence paek of influenza occurred in winter (December to January) and sub-peak occurred in summer (June to July). Significant differences were observed in annual incidence rate, ILI percentage (ILI%), and influenza virus positive rate among five districts of Foshan. Both the incidence data of influenza and ILI surveillance data revealed that the majority of cases occurred in individuals under 15 years of age, the incidence decreased with age. However, the etiological surveillance showed the highest positive rate in the 5-year-old group, followed by the 15-year-old group. All the data indicated a higher incidence in men, and the top three affected populations were students (34.53%), living scatteredly children (27.16%), and children in child care settings (15.90%). Comparative analysis on the pre-NPI period (2017–2019) and the NPI period (2020–2022) showed that the influenza incidence rate was higher during 2017-2019 (186.88/100 000) than during 2020-2022 (117.98/100 000). The ILI% was slightly higher during 2017-2019 (4.73%) compared to the adjusted ILI% during 2020-2022 (4.72%). The influenza virus positive rate decreased from 19.27% during 2017-2019 to 9.12% during 2020-2022, with the predominant subtypes shifting from A (H3N2) and A (H1N1)pdm09 to A (H3N2) and B Victoria lineage.
    Conclusion From 2017 to 2022, the incidence of influenza exhibited distinct winter and summer peaks in Foshan, with children under 15 years of age being mostly affected. The implementation of NPI was associated with reduced influenza incidence, lower influenza virus positive rates, and shift of predominant influenza strains, indicating that these measures could effectively reduce the intensity of influenza transmission. Discrepancies among the three types of surveillance data highlight the necessity of integrating multiple data sources for a comprehensive analysis on influenza epidemiology.

     

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