2014-2023年浙江省余姚市4类主要慢性病死亡率及早死概率变化趋势分析

Trends of mortality and premature death of four major non-communicable diseases in Yuyao, Zhejiang, 2014−2023

  • 摘要:
    目的  分析浙江省余姚市4类主要慢性病死亡率、早死概率及变化趋势,为慢性病的精准防控提供数据支持。
    方法 收集2014-2023年余姚市户籍居民恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病、慢性呼吸系统疾病和糖尿病等4类主要慢性病死亡数据,计算构成比、粗死亡率、标化死亡率、早死概率,拟合线性回归计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分析其变化趋势。
    结果 2014-2023年余姚市4类慢性病累计死亡44 366例,占总死亡人数的71.34%,标化死亡率由237.12/10万下降至231.38/10万(AAPC=−2.49%,t=−2.394,P=0.044)。 早死概率由8.84%下降至7.06%(AAPC=−4.14%,t=−4.335,P=0.002)。 恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病、慢性呼吸系统疾病和糖尿病标化死亡率分别为121.20/10万、89.93/10万、30.51/10万和12.06/10万,恶性肿瘤标化死亡率呈下降趋势(AAPC=−3.79%,t=−3.802,P=0.005),其余3类慢性病标化死亡率均变化差异无统计学意义(均P>0.05)。 恶性肿瘤早死概率由6.63%下降至4.84%(AAPC=−4.21%,t=−3.848,P<0.001),其他3类慢性病早死概率变化趋势差异无统计学意义(均P>0.05)。
    结论 2014-2023年余姚市居民恶性肿瘤标化死亡率和早死概率下降明显,但其他3类慢性病标化死亡率及早死概率均无明显变化趋势,提示慢性病防控工作任务依然艰巨,需要继续推进国家基本公共卫生服务项目,调整工作侧重点,进一步降低早死概率。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Analyzed the mortality, premature mortality, and trends of four major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Yuyao, Zhejiang province, and provide data support for the precise prevention and control of NCDs.
    Methods The death data of four major NCDs, including malignant tumor, cardio/cerebrovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes, in residents in Yuyao from 2014 to 2023 were colected, and the constituent ratio, crude mortality rate (CMR), standardized mortality rate (SMR) and the probability of premature death were calculated. The trends were analyzed by using average annual percentage of change (AAPC).
    Results A total of 44 366 deaths caused by the four major NCDs were reported in Yuyao from 2014 to 2023, accounting for 71.34% of the total deaths. The SMR decreased from 237.12/100 000 to 231.38/100 000 (AAPC=−2.49%, t=−2.394, P=0.044). The probability of premature death decreased from 8.84% to 7.06% (AAPC=−4.14%, t=−4.335, P=0.002). The SMRs of malignant tumor, cardio/cerebrovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes were 121.20/100 000, 89.93/100 000, 30.51/100 000, and 12.06/100 000 respectively, the SMR of malignant tumor showed a decline trend (AAPC=−3.79%, t=−3.802, P=0.005), the SMRs of other three types of NCDs showed no significant changes (all P>0.05). The probability of premature death of malignant tumor decreased from 6.63% to 4.84% (AAPC=−4.21%, t=−3.848, P<0.001), the probabilities of premature deaths of other three types of NCDs showed no significant changes (all P>0.05).
    Conclusions The SMR and premature death probability of malignant tumor in residents in Yuyao significantly decreased from 2014 to 2023, but the SMRs and premature death probabilities of the other three types of NCDs showed no significant changes, indicating that the prevention and control of NCDs is still a challenge. It is necessary to continue the national basic public health service projects, adjust the focus of work to further reduce the probability of premature death.

     

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