2008-2023年江苏省扬州市6岁以下儿童手足口病流行特征及时空聚集性分析

Analysis on epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hand, foot and mouth disease in children under 6 years old in Yangzhou, Jiangsu, 2008−2023

  • 摘要:
    目的 了解江苏省扬州市6岁以下儿童手足口病的流行特征和时空聚集性,为改善本地手足口病防控策略提供参考依据。
    方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2008-2023年扬州市乡镇(街道)6岁以下儿童手足口病发病率资料,运用ArcGIS 10.8软件进行趋势面分析、空间自相关分析和结果可视化,使用SaTScan 10.1软件进行时空扫描。
    结果 2008-2023年扬州市报告6岁以下儿童手足口病81 378例,年均发病率为111.18/10万。 病例中男童居多,占总病例的60.39%,时间上呈双峰分布。 趋势面分析结果显示,发病率自西向东为先升高后下降,自北向南为持续上升。 全局空间自相关分析显示,手足口病存在显著空间聚集性(Moran's I为0.15~0.33,P<0.01),局部自相关分析显示,高–高聚集类型始终分布在广陵区、邗江区和与仪征市接壤区域的乡镇(街道)。 逐年时空扫描分析显示,2008-2023年均存在主要聚集区,聚集时间多集中在6月和11月前后,聚集区域多分布在汶河街道、新城镇、杭集镇及其周边乡镇(街道),与局部自相关分析结果的高–高聚集类区域基本一致。
    结论 扬州市6岁以下儿童手足口病发病存在时空聚集性。 未来应在每年流行高峰前加强主城区内多个主要聚集区的干预措施。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and spatialotemporal clustering of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children under 6 years old in Yangzhou, Jiangsu province, and provide reference for the prevention and control of HFMD.
    Methods The incidence data of HFMD in children under 6 years old in Yangzhou from 2008 to 2023 were collected through China Disease Control and Prevention Information System, and software ArcGIS 10.8 was used for trend analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis and result visualization. Software SaTScan 10.1 was used for spatiotemporal scanning analysis.
    Results From 2008 to 2023, a total of 81 378 cases of HFMD in children under 6 years old were reported in Yangzhou, with an average annual incidence of 111.18/100 000. More boys were affected, and the cases in boys accounted for 60.39% of the total. Two incidence peaks were observed during this period. The results of the incidence trend showed that it incrased first and then decreased from west to east, and continued to increase from north to south. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was a significant spatial clustering of HFMD in Yangzhou (Moran's I was 0.15– 0.33, P<0.01), and the local autocorrelation analysis showed that the high-high clustering was always distributed in Guangling, Hanjiang and the townships bordering Yizheng. Year-by-year spatiotemporal scanning analysis showed that there were multiple clustering in Wenhe, Xincheng, Hangji and surrounding townships around June and November from 2008 to 2023, similar to the results of local autocorrelation analysis.
    Conclusion The incidence of HFMD in children under 6 years old showed spatiotemporal clustering in Yangzhou. It is necessary to strengthen the intervention in main clustering areas before the epidemic peak.

     

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