2010-2021年臭氧和二氧化氮长期暴露对中国人群全死因及心脑血管疾病死亡的影响

Long-term exposures to ozone and nitrogen dioxide and all-cause, cardio/cerebrovascular disease mortalities in China, 2010−2021

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析长期暴露于臭氧和二氧化氮对2010—2021年中国人群全死因及心脑血管疾病死亡的影响。
    方法 基于2010和2013年中国慢性病及危险因素监测项目获得研究对象的危险因素信息,通过身份证号与全国死因监测系统匹配得到研究对象的死亡信息,通过国家空气质量监测网提取污染物数据利用随机森林模型构建1 km×1 km空间分辨率的污染物浓度网格信息。 采用COX比例风险模型,控制性别、年龄、吸烟、饮酒等协变量后,计算臭氧及二氧化氮暴露对人群死亡的风险比(HR)及95%置信区间(CI)。
    结果 2010—2021年研究对象中死亡9 136例(5.11%),其中死于心脑血管疾病4 086例(2.28%)。 单污染物模型显示,长期臭氧暴露对全死因及心脑血管疾病的死亡风险差异无统计学意义(P>0.05),调整细颗粒物(PM2.5)后相应死亡风险明显升高(HR全死因=1.01,HR心脑血管=1.01)。 单污染模型中二氧化氮每增加10 μg/m3,全死因的死亡风险增加1.00%(HR=1.01,95%CI:1.00~1.02),心脑血管疾病的死亡风险增加了2.00%(HR=1.02,95%CI:1.01~1.03),校正PM2.5后,相应死亡风险增加(HR全死因=1.07,HR心脑血管=1.06)。 分层分析显示,臭氧和二氧化氮均对女性和≥65岁老年人群、农村人群的全死因和心脑血管疾病死亡有显著影响。
    结论 臭氧和二氧化氮长期暴露会显著增加人群全死因及心脑血管疾病死亡的风险,女性、老年人群、吸烟以及农村地区人群是空气污染的高危人群,加强空气污染治理和相关疾病的防控具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the impacts of long-term exposures to ozone and nitrogen dioxide on the all-cause mortality and cardio/cerebrovascular mortality in China from 2010 to 2021.
    Methods The risk factor information of the study participants were obtained from the China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance Project during 2010 - 2013, and the death information of the study participants verified by ID were obtained from national death cause surveillance system, and the pollutant concentration were collected from national air quality aurveillance network for the construction of grid information with a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km by using random forest model. COX proportional hazards model was used to calculate the risk ratio (HR) of the impact of ozone and nitrogen dioxide exposures on mortality and their 95% confidence interval (CI) after controlling for confounding variables, such as gender, age, smoking status, and alcohol consumption.
    Results From 2010 to 2021, a total of 9136 (5.11%) deaths occurred in the study participants, of which 4086 (2.28%) were due to cardio/cerebrovascular diseases. The single pollutant model showed that long-term ozone exposure had no significant impact on all-cause mortality or cardio/cerebrovascular disease mortality (P>0.05). After adjusting for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), the corresponding mortality risks increased significantly (HRall-cause=1.01, HRcardio/cerebrovascular disease=1.01). In the single pollutant model, a 10 μg/m3 increase in the concentration of nitrogen dioxide was associated with a 1.00% increase in the risk for all-cause mortality (HR=1.01, 95%CI: 1.00−1.02) and a 2.00% increase in the risk for cardio/cerebrovascular disease mortality (HR=1.02, 95%CI: 1.01−1.03). After adjusting for PM2.5, the corresponding mortality risks increased (HRall-cause=1.07, HRcardio/cerebrovascular disease=1.06). The stratified analysis showed that ozone and nitrogen dioxide exposures had significant impacts on all-cause mortality and cardio/cerebrovascular disease mortality in women, the elderly aged ≥65 years and rural population.
    Conclusion Long-term exposures to ozone and nitrogen dioxide can significantly increase the risk of all-cause mortality and cardio/cerebrovascular disease mortality in general population. Women, the elderly, smokers, and people living in rural areas are groups at high risk for air pollution. Therefore, it is of great importance to further strengthen air pollution control and related disease prevention and control.

     

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