2014-2023年江苏省南京市6岁以下儿童手足口病时空聚集及流行强度分析

Spatiotemporal clustering and incidence intensity of hand, foot and mouth disease in children under 6 years old in Nanjing, Jiangsu, 2014−2023

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析江苏省南京市6岁以下儿童手足口病的时空特征和流行强度,为手足口病分级预警和防控提供参考依据。
    方法  应用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0软件分析2014—2023年南京市6岁以下儿童手足口病发病趋势,采用时空扫描探测2014—2023年南京市6岁以下儿童手足口病时空聚集性,同时采用移动流行区间法(MEM)评估2024年手足口病流行强度。
    结果 2014—2023年,南京市6岁以下儿童手足口病年发病率下降趋势无统计学意义(平均年度变化百分比=−10.61,95%置信区间:−21.52~1.83;P=0.082)。 时空扫描分析结果显示,南京市6岁以下儿童手足口病发病具有时空聚集性,每年聚集街道/乡镇和聚集时间不完全相同,其中一类聚集区出现频次最多的为南部郊区溧水区和高淳区的15个街道/乡镇,聚集时间主要在2—5月、10月至次年1月。 MEM采用2014—2019年、2023年第8—35周发病率建模(δ=2.3),结果显示2024年同期南京市6岁以下儿童手足口病周发病率处于基线水平状态(<91.50/10万)。
    结论 近年来南京市6岁以下儿童手足口病发病无明显下降趋势,各年份时空聚集区域、流行强度均不完全一致,应根据不同流行强度在高发区域开展手足口病分级防控工作。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To evaluate spatiotemporal clustering and incidence intensity of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children under 6 years old in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, and provide reference for graded early warning, prevention and control of HFMD.
    Methods Based on the surveillance data of HFMD in children under 6 years old in Nanjing during 2014−2023, Joinpoint regression model was used to describe the incidence trend, while spatiotemporal scanning was conducted to explore the spatiotemporal clustering of the cases, and moving epidemic method (MEM) was used to evaluate the incidence intensity in 2024.
    Results The annual incidence of HFMD showed no significant decline (average annual percent change =−10.61, 95% confidence interval: −21.52−1.83, P=0.082). The spatiotemporal clustering existed in each year, typeⅠclustering frequently occurred in 15 streets/townships of Lishui and Gaochun districts in southern Nanjing from February to May, and from October to January. Moreover, the MEM based on the weekly incidence data from 2014 to 2019 and 2023 indicated that incidence of week 8−35 in 2024 was less than pre-epidemic threshold (91.50/100 000).
    Conclusion There was no significant decrease in annual incidence of HFMD in children under 6 years old in Nanjing, incidence intensity and spatiotemporal clustering were not completely consistent in each year, the grading prevention and control of HFMD should be carried out according to the incidence intensity.

     

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