2024年10月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in October 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2024年10月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2024年10月监测到18种传染病在全球36个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。 对我国的输入风险方面,中风险事件21个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件6个,中风险事件34个。
    结论 建议一般关注美洲、亚洲的登革热,美国东部的马脑炎疫情,非洲的猴痘疫情、美洲的奥罗普切热疫情、非洲的霍乱疫情、亚洲的基孔肯雅热疫情、希腊的西尼罗病毒病和印度的寨卡病毒病疫情可能带来的输入风险。 建议出国旅行者重点关注北美洲国家哥斯达黎加、南美洲国家阿根廷以及亚洲国家孟加拉国、斯里兰卡和印度的登革热疫情,亚洲国家印度的霍乱疫情可能带来的感染风险。 相较9月、10月还需一般关注南美洲阿根廷登革热疫情,非洲猴痘、霍乱进展以及南美洲黄热病疫情。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in October 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In October 2024, 18 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 36 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 21 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 6 high-risk events and 34 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to pay moderate attention to the possible importation risk posed by Dengue fever in Americas and Asia, Eastern equine encephalitis in the United States, mpox in Africa, Oropouche fever in the Americas, cholera in Africa, Chikungunya fever in Asia, West Nile virus in Greece and Zika in India. International travelers are advised to focus on the Dengue fever in Costa Rica of North America, Argentina of South America, and Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and India of Asia, and the possible infection risks brought by the cholera in India. Compared with September, in October, it is also necessary to pay moderate attentionto the progress of the dengue fever epidemic in Argentina of South America, the mpox and cholera in Africa, and the yellow fever epidemic in South America.

     

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