2024年11月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, November 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2024年11月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾省,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果 2024年11月突发公共卫生事件数可能较10月有所上升,以传染病事件为主。 当前仍将面临多种急性呼吸道传染病共同或交替流行的挑战,新型冠状病毒感染已降至极低水平,人感染禽流感疫情存在散发以及小规模聚集的可能,登革热疫情将进入下行阶段,诺如病毒肠炎暴发可能逐渐增多,取暖不当等导致的非职业性一氧化碳中毒将呈上升趋势。
    结论 对呼吸道传染病多病原监测、新型冠状病毒感染、人感染禽流感、登革热、诺如病毒肠炎、非职业性一氧化碳中毒等予以关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province, the same below) in November 2024.
    Methods Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments, the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial (autonomous region and municipal) centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.
    Results The number of public health emergencies in November 2024 is likely to be higher than that in October, mainly infectious disease events. At present, China will still face the challenge of co-epidemic or alternate epidemics of multiple acute respiratory infectious diseases. The epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China has dropped to extremely low levels. There is the possibility of sporadic and small clusters of human infection with avian influenza. The epidemic of dengue fever will enter a downward phase. Outbreaks of norovirus enteritis may gradually increase. Non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning caused by improper heating will be on the rise.
    Conclusion Attention should be paid to multiple acute respiratory infectious diseases, COVID-19, human infection with avian influenza, dengue fever, norovirus enteritis, and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.

     

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