2011-2022年山东省淄博市布鲁氏菌病流行特征及时空聚类分析

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of brucellosis in Zibo, Shandong, 2011−2022

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2011—2022年山东省淄博市布鲁氏菌病(布病)的流行特征,识别高风险人群、时空分布规律和聚集区域,为科学制定防控策略提供依据。
    方法 收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统的病例资料,采用层次聚类分析识别不同年龄组和区域的发病分布特征,结合肘部法确定聚类数;运用Poisson回归模型下的空间扫描统计法分析流行的时空聚集性。
    结果 2011—2022年淄博市共报告布鲁病病例1 693例,发病趋势呈“上升–下降–再上升”波动变化。 男性病例数高于女性(F=182.401,P<0.001),其中50~<60岁人群占比最高(30.66%)。 聚类结果显示,45~<70岁人群为主要高发年龄组(P<0.05);空间扫描识别出淄博市淄川区[最大似然比(LLR)=210.437,P<0.001]和临淄区(LLR=102.644,P<0.001)为一级聚集区。区域聚类结果显示,淄博市临淄区、周村区、桓台县、淄川区和高青县为高发地区(U=15.000,P=0.018)。
    结论 淄博市布病具有人群和空间聚集特征; 高发集中于45~64岁人群及淄川、临淄等地区。 应加强重点人群健康监测与精准干预,优化资源配置,提升区域防控的科学性与实效性。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of brucellosis in Zibo, Shandong province, from 2011 to 2022, and identify the populations at high risk, spatiotemporal distribution, and clustering areas to support targeted prevention and control of human brucellosis.
    Methods The incidence data of human brucellosis in Zibo during 2011−2022 were collected from China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Hierarchical cluster analysis and elbow method were used to explore the distribution patterns by age and area. Spatiotemporal clustering was detected by using a spatial scan statistic based on a Poisson regression model.
    Results A total of 1,693 human brucellosis cases were reported in Zibo during the study period, showing a fluctuating trend of up-down-up. More cases occurred in men than in women, the difference was significant (F=182.401, P<0.001), and the cases in age group 50–<60 years accounted for the highest proportion (30.66%). Clustering analysis identified people aged 45–<70 years as the main group at high-risk (P<0.05). Spatiotemporal scanning revealed Zichuan (LLR=210.437, P<0.001) and Linzi districts (LLR=102.644, P<0.001) as class I clustering areas. Area specific clustering analysis showed that Linzi, Zhoucun, Huantai, Zichuan, and Gaoqing were the areas with high-incidence (U=15.000, P=0.018).
    Conclusion The incidence of human brucellosis showed significant clustering in both population and spatial distributions in Zibo. People aged 45−64 years and areas such as Zichuan and Linzi were mostly affected. It is suggested to strengthen health monitoring and targeted interventions in key populations, optimize resource allocation, and improve the local prevention and control of human brucellosis.

     

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