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2012－2023年贵州省新报告HIV/AIDS基本特征及趋势分析

Basic characteristics and trends of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Guizhou, 2012−2023

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2012—2023年贵州省新报告HIV/AIDS基本特征及变化趋势，为有针对性的制定艾滋病防控措施提供参考依据。
    方法 通过全民健康保障信息化工程中国疾病预防控制信息系统下载2012—2023年贵州省新报告HIV/AIDS数据信息，描述不同年份HIV/AIDS的分布特征，使用Joinpoint回归模型分析其变化趋势。
    结果 2012—2023年贵州省共报告HIV/AIDS 86 176例，男女性别比为2.22∶1，诊断时平均年龄为（48.46±16.55）岁，性传播病例占97.27%；病例样本来源以医疗机构检测发现为主，占72.81%。 2012—2023年贵州省HIV/AIDS新发现率总体呈上升趋势平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）=7.86%，P＜0.001，其中2012—2018年上升较快年度变化百分比（APC）=18.75%，P＜0.001，2018—2023年呈逐年缓慢下降趋势（APC=−3.90%，P=0.016）；男性和女性新发现率变化趋势与总体类似。 0～＜15岁HIV/AIDS病例新发现率总体呈单调下降趋势（APC=−3.91，P=0.029）；15～＜65岁病例新发现率在2012—2018年上升较快（APC=16.38%，P＜0.001），2018年后呈单调下降趋势（APC=−4.19%，P＜0.001）；≥65岁HIV/AIDS新发现率在2012—2018年呈快速上升趋势（APC=42.94%，P＜0.001），2018年后变化趋势无统计学意义。 除黔北区域（APC=−2.47%，P=0.183）外，其他市、州2018年后病例新发现率均呈缓慢下降趋势。 首次CD4+T细胞计数＜200个/μL的病例的构成比呈单调上升趋势（APC=4.91%，P＜0.001）；首次CD4+T细胞计数为350～499个/μL（APC=−3.21%，P＜0.001）、≥500个/μL（APC=−6.22%，P=0.012）的病例构成比均呈缓慢下降趋势。
    结论 2012—2023年贵州省HIV/AIDS新发现率总体上升趋势有所减缓，但是黔北地区、≥65岁年龄组人群疫情形势仍不容乐观，病例总体发现较晚。 应结合地区实际情况，根据人群年龄特征改善防治措施，促进病例的尽早尽快发现。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the basic characteristics and diagnosis trends of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Guizhou province from 2012 to 2023 and provide evidence for the development of AIDS prevention and control measures.
    Methods The data of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Guizhou from 2012 to 2023 were collected from National Health and Disease Control Information System for a descriptive analysis on the distributions of the HIV/AIDS cases, and the diagnosis trends were analyzed by using Joinpoint regression model.
    Results A total of 86176 HIV/AIDS cases were reported in Guizhou from 2012 to 2023. The male to female ratio of the cases was 2.22∶1. The average age of the cases was (48.46±16.55) years and the cases caused by sexual transmission accounted for 97.27%. The cases were mainly reported by medical institutions, accounting for 72.81%. The diagnosis rate showed an increasing trend from 2012 to 2023 average annual percentage changes (AAPC) =7.86%, P<0.001, increased rapidly from 2012 to 2018 annual percentage changes (APC) =18.75%, P<0.001, and slowly decreased from 2018 to 2023 (APC=−3.90%, P=0.016). The diagnosis rates in both men and women were similar to the overall rate. The diagnosis rate showed a monotonical decreasing trend in age group 0−＜15 years (APC=−3.91%, P=0.029). The diagnosis rate showed a rapid increase from 2012 to 2018 (APC=16.38, P<0.001) and showed a monotonical decreasing trend after 2018 (APC=−4.19%, P< 0.001) in age group 15−＜65 years. The diagnosis rates showed a rapid increasing trend in age group ≥65 yearsfrom 2012 to 2018 (APC=42.94%, P<0.001) and the change after 2018 was not significant. Except northern Guizhou (APC=−2.47%, P=0.183), the diagnosis rates showed a slow downward trend in other areas in Guizhou after 2018. The proportion of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases with the first CD4+T count ＜200/μL showed a monotonical increasing trend (APC=4.91%, P<0.001), but the proportion of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases with the first CD4+T count 350−499/μL (APC=−3.21%, P＜0.001), ≥500/μL (APC=−6.22%, P=0.012) showed slow decreasing trends.
    Conclusion From 2012 to 2023, the overall increase of the newly reported HIV/AIDS cases became slow in Guizhou, but the cases in northern Guizhou and in age group ≥65 years still showed no decrease. Most HIV/AIDS cases had later detections. The prevention and treatment measures should be improved according to the age and area specific distributions of HIV/AIDS casesfor the the early case detection.

     

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