Abstract:
Objective To establish an early warning model of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) based on moving epidemic method (MEM), and to provide theoretical basis for the effective prevention and control of HFMD in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.
Methods The incidence data of HFMD in Ningxia from 2015 to 2023 were collected from the infectious disease reporting information management system of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and MEM models were established for the predictions of HFMD epidemics during spring - summer and during autumn-winterrespectively. The optimal parameters were selected to fit the model, and the cross-validation method was used to evaluate the model by using sensitivity, specificity and Jorden index.The model was used to predict the incidence of HFMD during 2024−2025 in Ningxia.
Results The early warning results in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region from 2024 to 2025 showed that the incidence of HFMD during spring - summer was higher than that in 2023, and the incidence of HFMD during autumn - winter was lower than that in 2023, and the incidence peak reached the medium level in both seasons.The spring-summer model’s optimal parameters δ was 2.00 the sensitivity was 0.79, the specificity was 0.92 and the Jorden index was 0.7 respectively. The autumn-winter model’s optimal parameters δ was 3.50, the sensitivity was 0.91, the specificity was 0.85 and the Jorden index was 0.76, respectively.
Conclusion The MEM model established in this study can accurately predict the incidence intensity of HFMD during spring-summer and during autumn-winter in Ningxia with the performance superior than traditional single peak model and can be used to adjust the prevention and control strategies by predicting the incidence dynamics of HFMD
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