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2013－2022年北京市昌平区其他感染性腹泻流行特征及变化趋势分析

Analysis on epidemiological characteristics and incidence trends of other infectious diarrheal disease in Changping district, Beijing, 2013−2022

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2013—2022年北京市昌平区其他感染性腹泻流行特征及变化趋势，为科学制定有效防控措施提供依据。
    方法 以中国疾病预防控制信息系统中2013—2022年上报的其他感染性腹泻病例为研究对象，采用描述性流行病学方法分析其流行特征，应用 Joinpoint 回归模型计算年度变化百分比（APC）和平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）反映趋势变化。
    结果 2013—2022年昌平区共报告30 569例其他感染性腹泻病例，年均发病率为154.19/10万，总发病率以2018年为转折点，2013—2018年缓慢上升，但趋势无统计学意义(APC=9.62%，P＞0.05)，2018—2022年快速下降（APC=−26.85%，P＜0.05）。 发病呈明显季节特征，存在夏季（6—8月）和冬季（11—1月）两个发病高峰，月发病率分别以3、7和10月为转折点（APC1-3月=−18.11%，APC3-7月=22.34%，APC7-10月=−19.96%和APC10-12月=22.40%，P＜0.05）。 男性年发病率高于女性（χ2＝38.017，P＜0.001），且男性的发病率趋势变化转折点早于女性；好发年龄以＜5岁儿童为主（52.07%），发病率总体随年龄组增长而下降（趋势χ2＝104 667.924，P＜0.001）。
    结论 昌平区近10年其他感染性腹泻病发病水平总体呈下降趋势，近5年下降明显，但3～＜4岁儿童发病率上升。 ＜5岁儿童是其他感染性腹泻防控的重点人群，夏季和冬季是防控的重点季节。 应结合疾病季节的特点，对＜5岁儿童采取针对性措施，精准防控。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Changping district, Beijing from 2013 to 2022, and to provide evidence for effective prevention and control measures.
    Methods The incidence data of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Changping from 2013 to 2022 were collected from Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Descriptive epidemiological analysis was used to analyze the epidemic characteristics, and annual percentage change (APC) was calculate by Joinpoint regression model to reflect trend changes.
    Results A total of 30569 cases of other infectious diarrheal diseases were reported in Changping from 2013 to 2022, with an average annual incidence rate of 154.19/100000. The incidence rate showed a slow increase from 2013 to 2018 without statistical significance (APC=9.62%, P>0.05). The incidence rate showed rapid decrease during 2018−2022 (APC=−26.85%, P<0.05). There were two incidence peaks in summer (June-August) and winter (November-January), and the incidence changes could be observed in March, July and October (APCJan.-Mar.=−18.11%, APCMar.-Jul.=22.34%, APCJul.-Oct.=−19.96% and APCOct.-Dec.=22.40%, P<0.05). The annual incidence rate was higher in men than in women (χ2=38.017, P<0.001), and the turning point of male incidence rate trend is earlier than that of female. The majority of the cases were children aged under 5 years (52.07%), and the incidence decreased with age (trend χ2=104 667.924, P<0.001).
    Conclusion The incidence of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Changping showed an downward trend in the past 10 years, especially in the past 5 years. However, the incidence rate in children aged 3−＜4 years showed a significant upward trend. Children under 5 years old were the key populations, while summer and winter were the key seasons for the prevention and control of other infectious diarrheal diseases. Targeted measures should be taken for the accurate prevention and control of other infectiou diarrheal diseases in children under 5 years old according to the seasonality of the disease.

     

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