2024年12月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in December 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2024年12月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2024年12月监测到17种传染病在全球36个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。 对我国的输入风险方面,中风险事件16个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件7个,中风险事件34个。
    结论 建议一般关注英国和亚洲部分国家的登革热,德国的猴痘,巴基斯坦的脊髓灰质炎,苏丹、刚果(金)、坦桑尼亚、南苏丹、也门的霍乱疫情,法国和巴基斯坦的基孔肯雅热疫情,越南的奥罗普切热疫情和美国、新加坡的百日咳疫情可能带来的输入风险。 海外旅行风险方面,建议出国旅行者重点关注大洋洲、亚洲的登革热,印度的基孔肯雅热以及流行性腮腺炎疫情。相较11月,12月还需一般关注英国的登革热疫情,乌干达、德国、保加利亚和印度的猴痘疫情,美国、加拿大、芬兰、新加坡的百日咳可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in December 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In December 2024, 17 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 36 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 16 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 7 high-risk events and 34 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to pay general attention to dengue fever in United Kingdom and selected countries in Asia, mpox in Germany, poliomyelitis in Pakistan, Cholera in Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, South Sudan and Yemen, chikungunya fever in France and Pakistan, Oropuche fever in Vietnam, whooping cough in United States of America and Singapore, which may pose import risks. In terms of overseas travel risks, it is recommended that international travelers pay close attention to dengue fever in Oceania and Asia, Chikungunya fever and mumps outbreaks in India. Compared to November, general attention should be paid to dengue fever in UK, mpox in Uganda, Germany, Bulgaria and India, whooping cough in USA, Canada, Finland, Singapore in December.

     

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