2025年2月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in February 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2025年2月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2025年2月监测到10种传染病在全球23个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。 对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件3个,中风险事件7个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件8个,中风险事件15个。
    结论 建议重点关注亚洲国家印度尼西亚、菲律宾、越南的登革热疫情可能带来的输入风险。 建议出国旅行者重点关注非洲国家苏丹、南美洲国家巴西以及亚洲国家印度尼西亚、菲律宾、斯里兰卡的登革热疫情,非洲国家苏丹、南苏丹、安哥拉的霍乱疫情可能带来的感染风险。 相较1月,2月还需进一步关注北美洲和欧洲的麻疹、亚洲的登革热以及非洲的霍乱疫情。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in February 2025 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In February 2025, 10 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 23 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 3 high-risk events and 7 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 8 high-risk events and 15 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to focus on the possible importation risk posed by Dengue fever from Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam in Asia. International travelers are advised to focus on the risk of infection from dengue fever in Sudan, Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and cholera in Sudan, South Sudan, Angola in Africa. Compared with January, in February, further attention should be paid to measles in North America and Europe, dengue fever in Asia, and cholera in Africa.

     

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