2025年3月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in March 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2025年3月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件的特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2025年3月监测到14种传染病在全球37个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。 对我国的输入风险方面,中风险事件15个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件17个,中风险事件26个。
    结论 建议一般关注南非的白喉疫情,美国的百日咳疫情,俄罗斯、菲律宾、美国、印度尼西亚和孟加拉国的登革热疫情,巴基斯坦的猴痘和脊髓灰质炎疫情,埃塞俄比亚和缅甸的霍乱疫情,巴西、德国、法国和印度的基孔肯雅热疫情,美国和越南的麻疹疫情可能带来的输入风险。 海外旅行风险方面,建议出国旅行者重点关注南非和尼日利亚的白喉疫情,巴拉圭、巴西、菲律宾、乌拉圭、秘鲁、孟加拉国、墨西哥、汤加、印度和印度尼西亚的登革热疫情,莫桑比克、津巴布韦、南苏丹、安哥拉和海地的霍乱疫情。 相较2025年2月,2025年3月还需一般关注乌干达的埃博拉出血热疫情,阿根廷的登革热疫情,坦桑尼亚、赞比亚和巴基斯坦的猴痘疫情,秘鲁的黄热病疫情,巴西、法国和印度的基孔肯雅热疫情,巴基斯坦、吉布提、乍得、尼日利亚的脊髓灰质炎病例,摩洛哥、也门、安哥拉、阿根廷、巴西、蒙古、吉尔吉斯斯坦、墨西哥和越南的麻疹疫情可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in March 2025 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In March 2025, 14 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 37 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 15 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 17 high-risk events and 26 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to pay general attention to diphtheria in South Africa, pertussis in the United States, dengue fever in Russia, Philippines, the United States, Indonesia, and Bangladesh, mpox and poliomyelitis in Pakistan, cholera in Ethiopia and Myanmar, chikungunya in Brazil, Germany, France, and India, and measles in the United States and Vietnam, which may pose import risks. In terms of overseas travel risks, it is recommended that international travelers pay close attention to the diphtheria in South Africa and Nigeria; dengue fever in Paraguay, Brazil, Philippines, Uruguay, Peru, Bangladesh, Mexico, Tonga, India, and Indonesia; and cholera in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, Angola, and Haiti. Compared to February 2025, general attention should be paid to Ebola virus disease in Uganda, dengue fever in Argentina, monkeypox in Tanzania, Zambia, and Pakistan, yellow fever in Peru, chikungunya in Brazil, France, and India, poliomyelitis in Pakistan, Djibouti, Chad, and Nigeria, and measles in Morocco, Yemen, Angola, Argentina, Brazil, Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, Mexico, and Vietnam in March 2025.

     

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