2025年4月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in April 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2025年4月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2025年4月监测到16种重点关注传染病在全球35个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。 对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件4个,中风险事件27个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件10个,中风险事件32个。
    结论 建议重点关注重点关注亚洲的登革热疫情,留尼汪岛的基孔肯雅热疫情,布基纳法索的寨卡病毒病可能带来的输入风险。 海外旅行风险方面,建议出国旅行者重点关注北美洲和亚洲的登革热疫情,乌干达的猴痘疫情,肯尼亚和缅甸的霍乱疫情,毛里求斯的基孔肯雅热疫情,布基纳法索的寨卡病毒病。 相较2025年3月,2025年4月还需一般关注萨摩亚、哥伦比亚、也门和老挝的登革热疫情,菲律宾的猴痘疫情,哥伦比亚和厄瓜多尔的黄热病疫情,刚果(金)和也门的霍乱疫情,埃塞俄比亚的脊髓灰质炎,塞内加尔的裂谷热可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside mainland China in April 2025 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the Internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In April 2025, 16 concerned infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 35 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 4 high-risk events and 27 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 10 high-risk events and 32 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to pay close attention to dengue fever in Asia, chikungunya fever in Reunion Island, Zika virus disease(ZVD) in Burkina Faso, which may pose import risks. In terms of overseas travel risks, it is recommended that international travelers pay close attention to dengue fever in North America and Asia, mpox outbreaks in Uganda, Cholera in Kenya and Myanmar, chikungunya fever in Republic of Mauritius, ZVD in Burkina Faso. Compared to March 2025, general attention should be paid to dengue fever in Samoa, Colombia, Yemen and Laos, mpox in Philippines, yellow fever in Colombia and Ecuador, Cholera in Democratic Republic of the Congo and Yemen, poliomyelitis in Ethiopia, rift valley fever in Senegal in April 2025.

     

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