2025年5月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, May 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2025年5月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果 2025年5月突发公共卫生事件报告数可能较4月增多,仍以传染病事件为主。 当前新型冠状病毒感染疫情已连续11周回升,病毒监测显示近期流行株无明显变化,预计我国本轮新型冠状病毒感染疫情近期将达峰,发生规模性疫情的可能性低。 5月开始,全国进入伊蚊活跃高峰期,输入病例引发本地续发传播风险高。 全球多国出现麻疹疫情明显上升,国内麻疹报告病例数明显高于去年同期,需警惕输入病例导致本土传播及免疫薄弱地区疫情传播风险。 目前进入手足口病流行期,预计5月病例数将呈增多趋势,南方省份疫情上升早于北方省份。 发热伴血小板减少综合征已进入发病高峰期,存在出现聚集性疫情的风险。 2025年4月全国报告10例人感染禽流感病例,均为散发,仍主要通过暴露于禽类或禽类环境而感染。 猴痘病毒Ⅱb亚分支疫情仍然保持低水平波动态势,同时存在猴痘病毒Ⅰ分支病例输入及本地续发传播风险。
    结论 对新型冠状病毒感染、手足口病、麻疹、登革热、发热伴血小板减少综合征、人感染禽流感、猴痘等予以关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan region, the same below) in May 2025.
    Methods Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments, the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial (autonomous region and municipal) centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.
    Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in May 2025 would be higher than that in April 2025. The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has shown an 11-week consecutive rebound, with virus monitoring indicating no significant changes in recent circulating strains. It is predicted that the current wave of COVID-19 in China will peak in the near future, with a low possibility of large-scale outbreaks. Starting from May, the China enters the peak activity period for Aedes mosquitoes, with extremely high risks of local secondary transmission triggered by imported cases. This year, many countries worldwide have seen a significant rise in measles outbreaks. Although the reported cases of measles this year is higher than that of the same period last year. Vigilance is required against the risk of local transmission caused by imported cases and epidemic spread in some immunologically vulnerable areas domestically. China has now entered the hand, foot and mouth disease epidemic period, with the number of cases expected to increase in May, and the epidemic in southern provinces rising earlier than that in northern provinces. The Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (SFTS) has entered its peak incidence period, with the risk of cluster outbreaks. In April 2025, 10 human avian influenza cases were reported nationwide, all sporadic, still mainly infected through exposure to poultry or poultry environments. The mpox virus clade IIb epidemic in China still maintains a low-level fluctuating trend, and there is also a risk of secondary transmission after the importation of mpox virus clade I cases.
    Conclusion Attention should be paid to COVID-19, dengue, measles, hand, foot and mouth disease, SFTS, human infection with avian influenza, mpox.

     

/

返回文章
返回