2025年5月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in May 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2025年5月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2025年5月监测到11种重点关注传染病在全球41个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。 对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件3个,中风险事件22个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件14个,中风险事件29个。
    结论 建议重点关注亚洲的登革热疫情可能带来的输入风险。 海外旅行风险方面,建议出国旅行者重点关注北美洲、大洋洲、亚洲和南美洲的登革热疫情,巴西、留尼汪岛和毛里求斯的基孔肯雅热疫情。 相较2025年4月,2025年5月还需一般关注洪都拉斯、法属波利尼西亚、汤加、基里巴斯的登革热疫情,巴西的基孔肯雅热疫情,埃塞俄比亚的猴痘病例,澳大利亚的麻疹疫情,乍得、几内亚、布基纳法索、科特迪瓦、苏丹、巴布亚新几内亚的脊髓灰质炎病例,日本和澳大利亚的百日咳疫情,纳米比亚、苏丹、南苏丹的霍乱疫情,尼日利亚的沙拉热疫情可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in May 2025 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In May 2025, 11 concerned infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 41 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 3 high-risk events and 22 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 14 high-risk events and 29 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to pay close attention to dengue fever in Asia, which may pose import risks. In terms of overseas travel risks, it is recommended that international travelers pay close attention to dengue fever in North America, Oceania, Asia and South America, chikungunya fever in Brazil, Reunion Island and Republic of Mauritius. Compared to April 2025, general attention should be paid to dengue fever in Honduras, French Polynesia, Tonga and Kiribati, mpox in Ethiopia, measles in Australia, polio in Chad, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Sudan, Papua New Guinea, pertussis in Japan and Australia, Cholera in Namibia, Sudan and South Sudan, Lassa fever in Nigeria in May 2025.

     

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