2025年6月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, June 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2025年6月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果 2025年6月突发公共卫生事件数可能与5月基本持平,以传染病类事件为主。 我国本轮新型冠状病毒感染疫情高峰已过,疫情高峰期间未给现有诊疗资源带来额外压力,预计后续呈现波动下降趋势。 全球多国出现麻疹疫情,国内麻疹报告病例数高于去年同期,免疫薄弱地区存在疫情传播风险。 我国进入伊蚊活跃高峰期,I类省份局部地区发生登革热聚集性疫情的风险增加。 发热伴血小板减少综合征处于发病高峰期,病例以散发为主,存在人–人传播导致的聚集性疫情的风险。 6月是食物中毒事件的高发季节,有毒动植物及毒蘑菇中毒事件进入年高峰期,微生物性食物中毒报告事件数和中毒人数将明显上升。 人感染禽流感疫情仍为由禽至人的偶发、散发溢出事件,我国人感染禽流感疫情呈低风险。 我国猴痘Ⅱb亚分支疫情将继续保持低水平波动态势,Ⅰ分支病例输入后也存在续发传播风险。 手足口病正值流行季,发病呈上升趋势,预计6—7月达夏季发病高峰。 6月发生高温中暑的风险会有所上升,婴幼儿及老年人群为中暑重症的高风险人群。
    结论 对新型冠状病毒感染、麻疹、登革热、发热伴血小板减少综合征、食物中毒、人感染禽流感、猴痘、手足口病、高温中暑等予以关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan region, the same below) in June 2025.
    Methods Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments, the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial (autonomous region and municipal) centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.
    Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in June 2025 would be at the same level as that in May 2025. The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases. The peak of the current wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections in China has passed. During the epidemic peak, it did not bring additional pressure to the existing medical resources. It is expected that the epidemic will show a fluctuating downward trend in the follow-up. Measles outbreaks have occurred in many countries around the world, and the number of reported measles cases in China is higher than the same period last year. There is a risk of epidemic transmission in immunocompromised areas. China has entered the peak activity period of Aedes mosquitoes, and the risk of dengue fever cluster outbreaks in some areas of Class I provinces has increased. Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is in the peak incidence period, with cases mainly sporadic, and there is a risk of clustered epidemics caused by human-to-human transmission. June is a high-risk season for food poisoning incident. The peak season for poisoning incidents caused by toxic plants, animals, and poisonous mushrooms has arrived, and the number of reported microbial food poisoning cases and the number of poisoned people will significantly increase. The human infection with avian influenza remains an occasional and sporadic spillover event from birds to humans, and the risk of human infection with avian influenza in China is low. The mpox clade IIb epidemic in China will continue to maintain a low-level fluctuating trend. After the importation of mpox virus clade I cases, there is also a risk of secondary transmission. Hand, foot and mouth disease is in the epidemic season, with an upward trend in incidence, and the summer peak is expected to occur in June-July. The risk of heatstroke in June will increase, and infants, young children and the elderly are high-risk groups for severe heatstroke.
    Conclusion Attention should be paid to COVID-19, measles, dengue fever, SFTS, food poisoning, human infection with avian influenza, mpox, hand, foot and mouth disease, heat stroke.

     

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