2025年6月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in June 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2025年6月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2025年6月监测到11种重点关注传染病在全球45个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。 对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件7个,中风险事件24个,低风险事件25个。 海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件15个,中风险事件32个,低风险事件9个。
    结论 建议重点关注亚洲的登革热疫情,法国的基孔肯雅热疫情带来的输入风险,海外旅行风险方面,建议出国旅行者重点关注北美洲、南美洲和亚洲的登革热疫情,非洲的基孔肯雅热疫情,南美洲的黄热病疫情。 相较2025年5月,2025年6月还需一般关注美国、斐济、毛里塔尼亚、秘鲁、也门和巴基斯坦的登革热疫情,几内亚、肯尼亚、阿根廷的猴痘疫情,贝宁、尼日尔、索马里、安哥拉和也门的脊髓灰质炎疫情,刚果民主共和国、肯尼亚、莫桑比克、也门和印度的霍乱疫情,亚洲国家巴基斯坦的克里米亚–刚果出血热疫情,巴西的黄热病疫情,阿根廷和韩国的寨卡病毒病疫情,印度尼西亚的流行性出血热疫情,柬埔寨的人感染禽流感疫情可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in June 2025 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In June 2025, 11 concerned infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 45 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 7 high-risk events and 24 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 15 high-risk events and 32 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to pay close attention to dengue fever in Asia and chikungunya fever in Europe, which may pose import risks. In terms of overseas travel risks, it is recommended that international travelers pay close attention to dengue fever in North America, South America and Asia, chikungunya fever in Africa. Compared to May 2025, general attention should be paid to dengue fever in the United States, Fiji, Mauritania, Peru, Yemen and Pakistan, mpox in Guinea, Kenya and Argentina, polio in Benin, Niger, Somalia, Angola and Yemen, cholera in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Mozambique, Yemen and India, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in Pakistan, yellow fever in Brazil, Zika virus disease in Argentina and South Korea, epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Indonesia, human avian flu in Cambodia regarding June 2025.

     

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