2025年7月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, July 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2025年7月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果 2025年7月突发公共卫生事件数可能比6月有所减少,以传染病类事件为主。 登革热境外输入及跨地区传播风险上升,Ⅰ类地区及部分Ⅱ类地区发生聚集性疫情的风险较高;基孔肯雅热等其他蚊媒传染病的输入和本土传播风险上升。 预计7月仍将出现霍乱散发病例。发热伴血小板减少综合征病例以散发为主,人传人导致的聚集性疫情风险也较高。 7月仍为食物中毒事件高发期,毒蘑菇、有毒动植物和微生物污染是主要风险。 7-8月高温中暑发病存在上升风险,男性、婴幼儿和老年人是中暑的高风险人群。 新型冠状病毒感染疫情将继续呈现下降或波动下降趋势。 我国持续存在发生人感染禽流感散发疫情的可能。 猴痘Ⅱb亚分支疫情仍将保持低水平波动态势,Ⅰa、Ⅰb亚分支病例存在输入及续发传播风险。 7月我国全面进入主汛期,洪涝灾害受影响地区存在水源性、食源性疾病以及虫媒传染病发病上升风险。
    结论 对登革热、霍乱、发热伴血小板减少综合征、食物中毒、高温中暑、新型冠状病毒感染、人感染禽流感、猴痘及洪涝灾害等予以关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan region, the same below) in July 2025.
    Methods  Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments, the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial (autonomous region and municipal) centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.
    Results  It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in July 2025 would be lower than that in June 2025. There is a rising risk of dengue fever imported from abroad as well as spreading across different areas within China. The risk of cluster outbreaks is high in Class Ⅰ regions and some areas of Class Ⅱ regions. The risk of imported and local transmission of chikungunya and other arboviral diseases would increase. Sporadic cases of cholera are expected to occur in July. Most cases of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) remains to be sporadic, and there is a high risk of cluster outbreaks due to human-to-human transmission. July is a high-risk period for food poisoning incidents, with poisonous mushrooms, toxic plants and animals, microbial contamination being the main risks. There is a rising risk of heatstroke incidence in July and August, men, infants, and the elderly are population at higher risk. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic will continue show a fluctuating downward trend in the follow-up. There remains a possibility of sporadic human infections with avian influenza in China. The mpox clade Ⅱb epidemic in China will continue to maintain a low-level fluctuating trend. There is a risk of importation and secondary infections of mpox clade Ia and Ib cases. In July, China fully enters the main floods season, affected areas would face increased risks such as increases in waterborne, foodborne, and vector-borne diseases.
    Conclusion  Attention should be paid to dengue fever, cholera, SFTS, food poisoning, heatstroke, COVID-19, human infection with avian influenza, mpox, floods.

     

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