2019-2023年山东省其他感染性腹泻病流行特征及时空聚集性分析

Analysis on epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of other infectious diarrhea in Shandong, 2019−2023

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2019—2023年山东省其他感染性腹泻病(OID)流行特征及时空聚集性,为合理制定防控策略提供参考。
    方法  通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集数据,使用描述性流行病学方法、空间自相关分析和时空扫描分析山东省OID流行特征及时空聚集性。
    结果  2019—2023年山东省共报告608 489例OID病例,年均报告发病率为120.34/10万。病例集中于农民(235 623例)、散居儿童(152 713例)和学生(63 487例)。流行季节呈“双峰”分布,夏季高峰时间为6—8月,次高峰自2021年开始后移,2023年已与夏季高峰融合。确诊病例以病毒感染为主(15 013例,94.13%)。威海市、东营市、济南市、滨州市和济宁市为高发地区。全局空间自相关分析结果表明各年度Moran's I指数介于0.18~0.29之间(P<0.05)。局部空间自相关结果显示,“高−高”聚集区主要分布在济南市、滨州市、威海市及济宁市的部分地区。时空扫描中共有1个一类聚集区、3个二类聚集区被探测到。济宁市、泰安市交汇地区为一类聚集区(相对危险度=3.30,对数似然比=5 651.65,P<0.001)。
    结论  2019—2023年山东省OID流行水平较高,流行季节次高峰出现后移现象。农民和散居儿童是高危人群,各地流行强度不同。针对高发地区和高危人群加强病原学监测和防控工作是防控的关键。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of other infectious diarrhea in Shandong province from 2019 to 2023, and provide reference for the development of prevention and control strategies.
    Methods Data were collected through the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and descriptive epidemiological methods, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and spatiotemporal scanning were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of other infectious diarrhea in Shandong.
    Results A total of 608 489 cases of other infectious diarrhea were reported in Shandong from 2019 to 2023, with an average annual incidence of 120.34/100 000. The cases were mainly farmers (235 623 cases), children living scatteredly (152 713 cases) and students (63 487 cases). The incidence peak was during June-August, and the sub-peak began to occur later in 2021 and merged with the summer peak in 2023. The confirmed cases were predominated by viral infections (15 013 cases, 94.13%). Weihai, Dongying, Jinan, Binzhou and Jining were the areas with high incidences. The results of global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the annual Moran's I index ranged from 0.18 to 0.29 (P < 0.05). The results of local spatial autocorrelation showed that the "high-high" clusters were mainly distributed in parts of Jinan, Binzhou, Weihai, and Jining. Spatiotemporal scanning analysis detected 1 Class I clustering area and 3 Class II clustering areas. The Class I clustering area was in the intersection areas of Jining and Tai'an (Relative Ratio, RR=3.30, Log-likelihood Ratio, LLR=5 651.65, P<0.001).
    Conclusion The incidence of other infectious diarrhea was high in Shandong from 2019 to 2023, and the sub-incidence peak gradually showed a late occurrence. Farmers and children living scatteredly were the high-risk groups, and the intensity of the epidemic varied with area. It is necessary to strengthen etiological surveillance and prevention and control of other infectious diarrhea in areas with high incidence and in populations at high risk.

     

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