基于动力学模型的诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情防控措施效果分析

俞国龙 陈田木 祝媛钊 史蓉婕 刘凤仁 叶碧莉 刘峰 林海端

俞国龙, 陈田木, 祝媛钊, 史蓉婕, 刘凤仁, 叶碧莉, 刘峰, 林海端. 基于动力学模型的诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情防控措施效果分析[J]. 疾病监测.
引用本文: 俞国龙, 陈田木, 祝媛钊, 史蓉婕, 刘凤仁, 叶碧莉, 刘峰, 林海端. 基于动力学模型的诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情防控措施效果分析[J]. 疾病监测.
Yu Guolong, Chen Tianmu, Zhu Yuanzhao, Shi Rongjie, Liu Fengren, Ye Bili, Liu Feng, Lin Haiduan. Effect of prevention and control measures of a norovirus infectious outbreak based on dynamic model[J]. Disease Surveillance.
Citation: Yu Guolong, Chen Tianmu, Zhu Yuanzhao, Shi Rongjie, Liu Fengren, Ye Bili, Liu Feng, Lin Haiduan. Effect of prevention and control measures of a norovirus infectious outbreak based on dynamic model[J]. Disease Surveillance.

基于动力学模型的诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情防控措施效果分析

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    作者简介:

    俞国龙,男,广东省梅州市人,本科,主管医师,主要从事传染病防制工作,Email:527842494@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    俞国龙,Tel:0755-28924745,Email:527842494@qq.com

  • 中图分类号: R378.9; R211

Effect of prevention and control measures of a norovirus infectious outbreak based on dynamic model

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  • 摘要:   目的  采用动力学模型模拟不同干预措施在诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情处置中的防控效果,探讨最佳防控方式。  方法  根据选取2020年深圳市龙岗区报告的一起诺如疫情资料,建立SEIAR模型,对诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情隔离、停课及呕吐物处置效果进行分析。  结果  本起疫情在无干预情况下,基本再生数为9.63,持续4 d,人群感染率为97.38%。采取隔离措施时,开始实施隔离的时间越迟,感染人数越多,持续时间变化不大;若疫情报告后次日下午才开始实施隔离,疫情规模接近无干预,隔离失效。在报告后次日开始停课(实际开始停课时间),疫情规模与实际相同;若报告后次日下午才开始停课,疫情与无干预很接近,停课无效。对呕吐物消毒效果评估,呕吐物未消毒的疫情与实际基本相同,随着呕吐物的消毒效果加强,感染人数下降,消毒效果达到90%以上时,基本无病例。  结论  发生诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情时,越早隔离、停课,规范处置呕吐物,效果越好。本研究建立的SEIAR模型进行动力学可评估隔离、停课等防控措施的效果。
  • 图  1  龙岗区某幼儿园一起诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情流行曲线

    Figure  1.  Epidemic curve of an outbreak of norovirus infection in a kindergarten in Longgang district

    图  2  诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情无干预措施SEIAR模型流程图

    Figure  2.  SEIAR model flow chart for norovirus infection epidemic without intervention

    图  3  诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情采取隔离措施SEIAQR模型流程图

    Figure  3.  SEIAQR model flow chart for norovirus infection epidemic with isolation measures

    图  4  诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情与模拟拟合结果

    Figure  4.  Outbreak of norovirus infection and simulation fitting result

    图  5  未采取干预措施的模拟条件下诺如疫情SEIAR模拟结果与实际数据比较

    Figure  5.  Comparison of SEIAR simulation results and actual data of outbreak of norovirus infection under simulated conditions without intervention

    图  6  隔离措施的模拟条件下诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情SEIAQR模拟结果与实际数据对比

    Figure  6.  Comparison of SEIAQR simulation results and actual data of outbreak of norovirus infection under simulated condition of isolation

    图  7  停课措施的模拟条件下诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情SEIAQR模拟结果与实际数据对比

    Figure  7.  Comparison of SEIAQR simulation results and actual data of outbreak of norovirus infection under simulated condition of class suspension

    图  8  呕吐物消毒效果的模拟条件下诺如病毒感染性腹泻暴发疫情SEIAQR模拟结果与实际数据对比

    Figure  8.  SEIAQR simulation results of outbreak of norovirus infection under simulated conditions of the disinfection disposal of vomitus compared with actual data

    图  9  SEIAR模型敏感性分析结果

    注:A.模型对参数ω的敏感性;B.模型对参数ω'的敏感性;C.模型对参数γ的敏感性;D.模型对参数γ'的敏感性;E.模型对参数p的敏感性;F.模型对参数k的敏感性

    Figure  9.  Sensitivity analysis results of the SEIAR model

    表  1  模型参数定义与取值方法

    Table  1.   Model parameter definition and value method

    参数定义单位范围取值方法
    β传染率系数d−10~1模拟拟合
    kA相对I的传播能力系数10~0.250.05文献
    ω潜伏期系数d−10.5~21文献
    ω'潜隐期系数d−10.2~1.51文献
    p隐性感染比例10.01~0.50.3文献
    γI移出率系数d−10.1667~10.3333文献
    γ'A移出率系数d−10.01786~0.076920.03571文献
    f隔离率系数d−10~11实际
    m根据不同模型定义10−1实际
    n根据不同模型定义10~1实际
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  不同防控措施在诺如疫情的效果模拟

    Table  2.   Simulation of effect of different prevention and control measures in outbreak of norovirus infection

    干预措施累计罹患数(例)累计罹患率TAR(%)暴发持续时间DO(d)发病高峰值(例)发病高峰日
    实际5210.4634310月15日
    无干预33968.214214
    隔离措施10月15日开始隔离132.62312
    10月15日下午开始隔离357.04334
    10月16日开始隔离8917.91384
    10月16日下午开始隔离33667.613219
    停课措施
    10月16日开始停课5511.07341
    10月16日下午开始停课33667.613214
    呕吐物消毒





    未消毒5511.07349
    消毒效果10%387.65334
    消毒效果30%163.22315
    消毒效果50%61.2135
    效果效果70%20.4032
    效果效果90%0000
    效果效果100%0000
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-03-04
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-06-17

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