Abstract:
Objective In order to fully consider the impact of individual differences and personnel movement in population on the spread of infectious diseases, an infectious disease model based on individual behavior was established to reveal the dynamic characteristics of disease spread and evaluate the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control measures.
Methods The model was established based on individual subject, which gives different values to individual attributes to reflect the differences between individuals. The factors affecting the spread of infectious disease were introduced into the model in the form of parameters, and the individual state changes during the epidemic of infectious diseases were reflected by changing the individual attribute values.
Results Through the setting and adjustment of relevant parameters, the result of the model was highly consistent with the epidemic trend. The model was validated by using the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Wuhan. On this basis, the impact of individual social activity on the development of epidemic was discussed, and the trend of infectious disease epidemic under different prevention and control measures was simulated.
Conclusion The parameters in this model are flexible, which are suitable for the analysis on infectious diseases in various situations and can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of prevention and control measures to provide guidance for epidemic prevention and control.
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