张荣娜, 武洁雯, 纪瀚然, 庞明樊, 杨昕娉, 梁作如, 房元圣, 李洁, 赵青, 戚晓鹏. 2022年5月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(6): 725-729. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202206210275
引用本文: 张荣娜, 武洁雯, 纪瀚然, 庞明樊, 杨昕娉, 梁作如, 房元圣, 李洁, 赵青, 戚晓鹏. 2022年5月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(6): 725-729. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202206210275
Zhang Rongna, Wu Jiewen, Ji Hanran, Pang Mingfan, Yang Xinping, Liang Zuoru, Fang Yuansheng, Li Jie, Zhao Qing, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in May 2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(6): 725-729. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202206210275
Citation: Zhang Rongna, Wu Jiewen, Ji Hanran, Pang Mingfan, Yang Xinping, Liang Zuoru, Fang Yuansheng, Li Jie, Zhao Qing, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in May 2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(6): 725-729. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202206210275

2022年5月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in May 2022

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2022年5月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。
      方法  根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”、“WHO各分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。
      结果  与2022年4月相比,全球月新增确诊病例下降了35.72%,全球月新增死亡病例下降了41.85%。 相较于4月,5月非洲区新增确诊病例增长率高达111.80%,美洲区(北)和美洲区(南)略有升高,其他各区呈下降趋势,降幅最大的为东南亚区;新增死亡病例除非州区增长114.70%外,各区新增死亡病例均下降,降幅在12.50%~64.60%之间,降幅最大的为东南亚区。
      结论  全球日新增确诊病例和死亡病例5月整体呈下降趋势,但非洲区疫情整体加重,新增确诊病例和死亡病例均有大幅升高,应予以重点关注,及时沟通并调整防控措施。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in May 2022 and the risk of importation.
      Methods   According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighbouring countries of special concern”.
      Results  Compared with April 2022, the global monthly new confirmed cases dropped by 35.72%, and the global monthly new deaths dropped by 41.85%. Compared with April, except for the 111.80% increase in newly confirmed cases in the African region, and slightly increase in the Americas region (South) and Americas region (North), the new confirmed cases in May all declined, with the largest decline in the Southeast Asia region; And except for the 114.70% increase in new deaths in the Africa region, the number of new deaths decreased in all regions, ranging from 12.50% to 64.60%, with the largest decline in the Southeast Asia region.
      Conclusion   The global daily newly confirmed cases and deaths showed an overall downward trend in May, but the epidemic situation in the African region is still aggravating, and the number of newly confirmed cases and deaths is still increasing, which should be paid special attention to, timely communicate and adjusted measures.

     

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