Analysis on life expectancy and cause-eliminated life expectancy in Pudong new district of Shanghai, 2005−2020
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摘要:
目的 评估2005—2020年上海市浦东新区居民人均期望寿命与去死因期望寿命现状与变化趋势，为优化卫生资源配置提供依据。 方法 利用简略寿命表与去死因寿命表，计算2005—2020年浦东新区居民人均期望寿命和去死因期望寿命，利用Join-point软件计算人均期望寿命变化趋势。 结果 2020年浦东新区居民人均期望寿命为84.76岁，其中男、女性居民人均期望寿命分别为82.58 、87.01岁。 2005—2020年人均期望寿命保持增长，平均每年增长0.25岁。 16年间，呼吸系统疾病与损伤和中毒导致的人均期望寿命损失呈下降趋势，分别由1.50、1.01岁下降至0.79、0.70岁，肿瘤导致的人均期望寿命损失保持稳定，循环系统疾病与内分泌营养代谢疾病导致的人均期望寿命损失呈上升趋势，分别由4.92 、0.38岁增长至9.73、0.68岁。 2005—2020 年浦东新区居民去死因期望寿命顺位保持稳定，前6位死因分别为循环系统疾病、肿瘤、呼吸系统疾病、损伤和中毒、内分泌营养代谢疾病及消化系统疾病。 结论 浦东新区居民人均期望寿命已达发达国家领先水平，并保持稳步增长。 慢性非传染性疾病是导致居民人均期望寿命损失的主要原因。 循环系统疾病与内分泌营养代谢疾病导致的人均期望寿命损失呈加速上升趋势，肿瘤导致的人均期望寿命损失维持在高位，应在未来疾病防控工作中有所侧重。 Abstract:Objective To understand the life expectancy and cause-eliminated life expectancy of residents in Pudong new district of Shanghai during 2005−2020 and provide reference to the adjustment of health resource distribution. Methods Abridged life table and cause eliminated life table were used to calculate the life expectancy and cause-eliminated life expectancy of residents in Pudong, and temporal trend of life expectancy were evaluated by using software Join-point. Results The life expectancy of residents in Pudong was 84.76 years in 2020, and the life expectancy was 82.58 years in men and 87.01 years in women. The growth of life expectancy of residents in Pudong remained from 2005 to 2020, with an average annual increase of 0.25 years. In the past 16 years, the life expectancy loss caused by respiratory diseases and injury showed a downward trend, and the life expectancy loss decreased from 1.50 years and 1.01 years to 0.79 years and 0.70 years, respectively. The life expectancy loss caused by tumor kept stable. The life expectancy loss caused by circulatory diseases and endocrine nutritional and metabolic diseases showed an upward trend, and the life expectancy loss increased from 4.92 years and 0.38 years to 9.73 years and 0.68 years, respectively1. The rank of cause-eliminated life expectancy remained stable from 2005 to 2020, and the top 6 disease were circulatory diseases, tumor, respiratory diseases, injury/poisoning, endocrine nutritional and metabolic diseases and digestive system diseases. Conclusion The life expectancy in residents in Pudong increased steadily, which has reached leading levels of developed countries. Chronic and non-communicable disease was the main cause for the loss of life expectancy. There was an accelerating trend of loss of life expectancy caused by circulatory diseases and endocrine nutritional and metabolic diseases, and the loss of life expectancy caused by tumor remained at a high level. More effort should be made in the future prevention against these diseases. -
Key words:
- Life expectancy /
- Cause-eliminated life expectancy /
- Temporal trend
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表 1 2005－2020年上海市浦东新区居民人均期望寿命变化趋势（岁）
Table 1. Life expectancy trend in residents in Pudong New Area of Shanghai, 2005−2020
年份 合计 男性 女性 2005 80.59 78.15 83.02 2006 81.37 78.91 83.81 2007 81.34 78.92 83.75 2008 81.71 79.46 83.92 2009 82.14 79.79 84.47 2010 82.57 80.17 84.96 2011 82.62 80.26 84.96 2012 82.53 80.16 84.92 2013 83.03 80.63 85.47 2014 83.32 81.02 85.65 2015 83.18 80.85 85.57 2016 83.77 81.51 86.07 2017 83.90 81.49 86.36 2018 84.28 81.89 86.74 2019 84.46 82.00 87.02 2020 84.76 82.58 87.01 β值 0.25 0.26 0.25 Z值 24.614 22.669 24.194 P值 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 
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表 2 2005－2020年上海市浦东新区居民主要疾病去死因期望寿命变化趋势
Table 2. Cause-eliminated life expectancy trend of major death causes in Pudong New Area of Shanghai, 2005−2020
年份 去死因期望寿命（岁） 寿命损失（岁） 循环系统
疾病肿瘤 呼吸系统
疾病内分泌营养
代谢疾病损伤和
中毒消化系统
疾病循环系统
疾病肿瘤 呼吸系统
疾病内分泌营养
代谢疾病损伤和
中毒消化系统
疾病2005 85.51 84.44 82.09 80.97 81.60 80.92 4.92 3.85 1.50 0.38 1.01 0.33 2006 86.49 85.42 82.72 81.80 82.28 81.70 5.12 4.05 1.35 0.42 0.91 0.33 2007 86.42 85.22 82.68 81.76 82.21 81.66 5.08 3.87 1.33 0.41 0.87 0.32 2008 86.97 85.49 83.00 82.11 82.50 82.01 5.26 3.78 1.29 0.40 0.79 0.31 2009 87.65 86.16 83.38 82.57 82.98 82.47 5.51 4.02 1.24 0.43 0.84 0.33 2010 88.32 86.72 83.74 83.01 83.38 82.88 5.75 4.15 1.17 0.44 0.81 0.31 2011 88.50 86.82 83.84 83.07 83.41 82.94 5.88 4.20 1.22 0.46 0.80 0.32 2012 88.55 86.48 83.67 82.97 83.17 82.84 6.02 3.95 1.15 0.45 0.64 0.31 2013 89.42 87.19 84.09 83.52 83.72 83.36 6.39 4.16 1.06 0.49 0.70 0.33 2014 90.07 87.43 84.47 83.83 84.00 83.60 6.75 4.10 1.15 0.51 0.68 0.28 2015 90.12 87.16 84.30 83.75 83.90 83.42 6.94 3.97 1.12 0.56 0.71 0.24 2016 91.52 87.78 84.83 84.38 84.46 84.01 7.75 4.02 1.07 0.62 0.69 0.24 2017 91.53 87.92 84.93 84.54 84.60 84.17 7.63 4.02 1.03 0.65 0.71 0.27 2018 92.63 88.27 85.31 84.91 85.03 84.57 8.36 3.99 1.04 0.63 0.76 0.29 2019 92.79 88.42 85.41 85.16 85.13 84.72 8.33 3.96 0.95 0.70 0.67 0.26 2020 94.50 88.82 85.56 85.44 85.47 85.04 9.73 4.06 0.79 0.68 0.70 0.27
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表 3 2005－2020年上海市浦东新区居民主要疾病导致期望寿命损失趋势分析
Table 3. Analysis on trend of life expectancy loss due to major death causes in Pudong New Area of Shanghai, 2005−2020
疾病类型 时间区段（年） β值 Z值 P值 循环系统疾病 2005－2013 0.170 4.458 <0.001 2013－2020 0.430 9.053 <0.001 肿瘤 2005－2020 0.010 1.062 0.306 呼吸系统疾病 2005－2009 −0.060 −3.178 0.013 2009－2018 −0.020 −3.035 0.016 2018－2020 −0.120 −1.889 0.096 内分泌营养代谢疾病 2005－2012 0.010 2.650 0.023 2012－2020 0.030 9.530 <0.001 损伤和中毒 2005－2012 −0.040 −5.570 <0.001 2012－2020 0.000 −0.223 0.827 消化系统疾病 2005－2020 −0.010 −4.631 <0.001
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表 4 2005与2020年上海市浦东新区居民去死因期望寿命变化
Table 4. Comparison of cause-eliminated life expectancy of residents in Pudong New Area of Shanghai, 2005 and 2020
顺位 2005年 2020年 去死因疾病类别 去死因期望寿命（岁） 寿命损失（岁） 寿命损失率（%） 去死因疾病类别 去死因期望寿命（岁） 寿命损失（岁） 寿命损失率（%） 1 循环系统疾病 85.51 4.92 6.11 循环系统疾病 94.50 9.73 11.48 2 肿瘤 84.44 3.85 4.78 肿瘤 88.82 4.06 4.79 3 呼吸系统疾病 82.09 1.50 1.86 呼吸系统疾病 85.56 0.79 0.93 4 损伤和中毒 81.60 1.01 1.25 损伤和中毒 85.47 0.70 0.83 5 内分泌营养代谢疾病 80.97 0.38 0.47 内分泌营养代谢疾病 85.44 0.68 0.80 6 消化系统疾病 80.92 0.33 0.40 消化系统疾病 85.04 0.27 0.32 7 传染病和寄生虫病 80.80 0.21 0.26 神经系统疾病 84.97 0.20 0.24 8 先天异常 80.74 0.15 0.18 精神障碍 84.86 0.09 0.11 9 新生儿疾病 80.71 0.12 0.15 新生儿疾病 84.85 0.09 0.11 10 精神障碍 80.70 0.11 0.14 传染病和寄生虫病 84.85 0.09 0.11
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