2010-2023年北京市某区发热呼吸道疾病聚集性疫情流行特征及影响因素分析

Epidemiological characteristics of febrile respiratory illness epidemics and influencing factors in a district of Beijing, 2010−2023

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2010—2023年北京市某区发热呼吸道疾病聚集性疫情流行病学特征,探讨疫情流行强度和持续时间的影响因素,为发热呼吸道疾病的防控工作提供实证依据。
    方法 收集2010—2023年北京市某区发热呼吸道疾病聚集性疫情资料,对疫情流行特征进行描述性分析,应用χ2检验和非条件logistic回归模型分析疫情罹患率及持续时间的影响因素。
    结果 2010—2023年北京市某区共报告发热呼吸道疾病聚集性疫情554起,平均罹患率为21.71%,中位持续时间为4 d,中位疫情规模为8人。 疫情高峰在11月至次年4月,共报告501起(占90.43%);城区罹患率高于农村(χ2=169.801,P<0.001);中小学和托幼机构是疫情发生的主要场所,共报告544起(98.19%);引起疫情病原体以流感病毒为主,占76.65%(384/501),其次是腺病毒占2.20%(11/501)。 流感病毒引起的疫情中班级学生流感疫苗接种者罹患率低于未接种者(χ2=296.350,P<0.001)。 民办学校[比值比(OR)=5.06, 95%置信区间(95%CI):1.79~14.27]、采取停课措施时间>4 d(OR=3.92,95%CI:1.04~14.74)、响应时间2~3 d(OR=2.91,95%CI:1.99~4.26)、响应时间4 d(OR=4.79,95%CI:2.18~10.54)、病原为乙型Victoria系(OR=3.76,95%CI:1.60~8.82)是疫情流行强度的影响因素;采取停课措施时间>4 d(OR=47.12,95%CI:14.36~154.55)、响应时间2~3 d(OR=2.14,95%CI:1.44~3.18)、响应时间≥4 d(OR=20.16,95%CI:6.85~59.33)、病原在当季流感疫苗组份中(OR=0.35,95%CI:0.13~0.96)、病原为乙型Victoria系(OR=5.25,95%CI:2.31~11.91)、乙型Yamagata系(OR=5.54,95%CI:1.76~17.45)、腺病毒(OR=6.72,95%CI:1.66~27.23)、其他病原(肺炎支原体,人偏肺病毒,呼吸道合胞病毒和鼻病毒)(OR=4.41,95%CI:1.19~16.28)是疫情持续时间的影响因素。
    结论 2010—2023年该区发热呼吸道疾病聚集性疫情季节性明显,城区罹患率高于农村,中小学和托幼机构疫情是疫情高发场所,流感病毒是最常见的病原体。 为降低疫情强度、缩短疫情持续时间,建议继续加强学校卫生管理工作,提高学生流感疫苗接种率,出现疫情及时报告并规范采取各项疫情防控措施。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of outbreaks of febrile respiratory illness in a district of Beijing from 2010 to 2023, identify the influencing factors of epidemic intensity and duration, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of febrile respiratory illness.
    Methods The incidence data of epidemics of febrile respiratory illness in the district from 2010 to 2023 were collected for a descriptive epidemiological analysis, and χ2 test and the multiple logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors for epidemic intensity and duration.
    Results From 2010 to 2023, a total of 554 epidemics of febrile respiratory illness were reported in the district, with an average attack rate of 21.71%. The median duration of the epidemic was 4 days, and the median size of the epidemic was 8 cases. The annual incidence peak of the epidemic was during November - April, with a total of 501 outbreaks (90.43%) being reported. The attack rate was higher in urban area than in rural area (χ2=169.801, P<0.001). The epidemics mainly occurred in primary or secondary schools and kindergartens (544 outbreaks, 98.19%). The causative pathogens were mainly influenza viruses, accounting for 76.65% (384/501), followed by adenoviruses, accounting for 2.20% (11/501). In the influenza virus-caused epidemics, the attack rate in students who received influenza vaccination was lower than that in those who received no influenza vaccination (χ2=296.350, P<0.001). The multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that private school (OR=5.06, 95%CI: 1.79− 14.27), school suspension for >4 days (OR=3.92, 95%CI: 1.04−14.74), epidemic response for 2−3 days (OR=2.91, 95%CI: 1.99−4.26), epidemic response for4 days (OR=4.79, 95%CI: 2.18−10.54), and influenza B virus/Victoria lineage (OR=3.76, 95%CI: 1.60−8.82) were the influencing factors for the intensity of the epidemics. School suspension for >4 days (OR=47.12, 95%CI: 14.36−154.55), epidemic response for 2−3 days (OR=2.14, 95%CI: 1.44−3.18), epidemic response ≥4 days (OR=20.16, 95%CI: 6.85−59.33), pathogen being included in the current seasonal influenza vaccine composition (OR=0.35, 95%CI: 0.13−0.96), influenza B virus/Victoria lineage (OR=5.25, 95%CI: 2.31−11.91), B/Yamagata lineage (OR=5.54, 95%CI: 1.76−17.45), adenovirus (OR=6.72, 95%CI: 1.66−27.23), and others (mycoplasma pneumoniae, human metapneumovirus, respiratory syncytial virus and rhinovirus) (OR=4.41, 95%CI: 1.19−16.28) were the influencing factors for the duration of the epidemics.
    Conclusion The seasonality of the epidemics of febrile respiratory illness was obvious in the district of Beijing from 2010 to 2023, with higher attack rate in urban area than in rural area. Schools and kindergartens were the high-risk settings, and influenza virus was the most common pathogen. To mitigate the impact and reduce the duration of the epidemics, it is suggested to further strengthen school health management, improve influenza vaccination coverage in students, and conduct timely reporting of the epidemics and standardized epidemic prevention and control.

     

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