2013-2021年中国阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆死亡水平和趋势分析

Analysis on level and trend of mortality of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in China, 2013−2021

  • 摘要:
    目的  分析2013—2021年中国阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆死亡水平和趋势,以期了解阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆在中国人群的死亡水平和趋势。
    方法  从《中国死因监测数据集(2013—2021)》共9本数据集中摘取2013—2021年中国阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆死亡率数据,对粗死亡率进行漏报调整。 根据2010年全国人口普查数据,使用SAS 9.4软件对漏报调整后的粗死亡率进行标化。 针对漏报调整后的死亡率数据,采用Excel 2022软件分析不同年龄组的变化趋势,并使用Joinpoint 5.0.2软件分析2013—2021年中国不同性别和地区的阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆的粗死亡率和标化死亡率的变化趋势,计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)及其95%置信区间。
    结果  2013—2021年中国阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆粗死亡率从6.15/10万增长到7.38/10万;标化死亡率从5.35/10万减少到4.25/10万。 2013—2021年中国居民阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆的粗死亡率整体上呈现增长趋势,标化死亡率呈现下降趋势(AAPC=2.45%,AAPC=−2.55%,均P<0.050)。 2013—2021年中国男性和女性居民阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆的粗死亡率整体上呈现增长趋势(AAPC=1.81%,AAPC=2.71%,均P<0.050),标化死亡率呈现下降趋势(AAPC=−2.89%,AAPC=−2.39%,均P<0.050);城市和农村居民阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆的粗死亡率整体上呈现增长趋势(AAPC=1.35%,AAPC=2.83%,均P<0.050),城市居民标化死亡率呈现下降趋势(AAPC=−2.85%,P<0.050),农村居民标化死亡率维持稳定(AAPC=−2.35%,P>0.050)。 女性居民阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆粗死亡率(7.24/10万)大于男性(5.43/10万),标化死亡率(4.56/10万)小于男性(4.76/10万);农村阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆粗死亡率和标化死亡率(6.61/10万、4.92/10万)均大于城市(5.76/10万、4.21/10万)。 中国居民阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆的粗死亡率在60岁后随着年龄增大出现明显的增长趋势。
    结论  2013—2021年中国居民阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆的粗死亡率整体上呈现增长趋势,标化死亡率呈现下降趋势。 在中国快速进入老龄化的背景下,针对阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆因地制宜和因病制宜的三级预防,我国仍需采取更多措施,以降低疾病死亡率。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To understand the level and trend of mortality of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in China from 2013 to 2021.
    Methods The mortality data of Alzheimer's disease and other dements in China from 2013 to 2021 were extracted from China Cause of Death Surveillance Datasets 2013−2021, and the under-reporting of crude mortality rate was adjusted. Based on the 2010 national census data, software SAS 9.4 was used to standardize the adjusted crude mortality rate. For the under-reporting adjusted mortality data, software Excel 2022 was used to analyze the trends in different age groups, and software Joinpoint 5.0.2 was used to analyze the variation trends of crude and standardized mortality rates of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in men and women and in urban and rural areas in China from 2013 to 2021. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were calculated.
    Results From 2013 to 2021, the crude mortality rate of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias increased from 6.15/100 000 to 7.38/100 000 in China, while the standardized mortality rate decreased from 5.35/100 000 to 4.25/100 000. Over this period, the crude mortality rate of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias showed an increasing trend, while the standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend (AAPC=2.45%, AAPC=−2.55%, both P<0.050). The crude mortality rates of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in both men and women showed increasing trends (AAPC=1.81%, AAPC=2.71%, both P<0.050), while the standardized mortality rates showed decreasing trends (AAPC=−2.89%, AAPC=−2.39%, both P<0.050). The crude mortality rates of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in both urban residents and rural residents showed increasing trends (AAPC=1.35%, AAPC=2.83%, both P<0.050). The standardized mortality rate in urban residents showed a decreasing trend (AAPC=−2.85%, P<0.050), while the standardized mortality rate in rural residents remained stable (AAPC=−2.35%, P>0.050). Women had higher crude mortality rate (7.24/100 000) compared with men (5.43/100 000), but lower standardized mortality rate (4.56/100 000) compared with men (4.76/100 000). Rural area had higher crude mortality rate (6.61/100 000) and standardized mortality rate (4.92/100 000) compared with urban area (5.76/100 000 and 4.21/100 000). Additionally, the crude mortality rate of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias showed a clear upward trend with age beyond 60 years in China.
    Conclusion From 2013 to 2021, the crude mortality rate of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias showed an increasing trend, while the standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend in China. Given the rapid population aging, more efforts are needed to reduce the mortality rate of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias by taking targeted tertiary prevention strategies according to local conditions and needs.

     

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