信号分析技术在疾病监测中的应用探索——以甘肃省肺炎为例

Application of signal analysis technology in disease surveillance a case study of pneumonia incidence in Gansu

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析甘肃省2019—2024年肺炎的流行特征,为甘肃省“医防融合”改革试点提供新思路。
    方法 汇总甘肃省全民健康信息平台肺炎患者的全量就诊数据,采用信号分析中的频谱分析和突变点检测算法,挖掘肺炎流行的新特点。
    结果 2019—2024年,甘肃省肺炎就诊人次数形成的信号波,是一个典型的不稳定正弦波。振幅波动较大,波形未出现明显的周期性。 监测期间,甘肃省肺炎就诊人次数存在异常波动或瞬态干扰的情形。 肺炎就诊人次数形成的信号波近似于Delta波,提示存在有异常情况的发生。 肺炎就诊人次数表现出低频主导的特性,在频率范围1.098~4.277 Hz内,幅值最高达150 000,就诊人次数受到共振和周期性的冲击,提示有共病现象和规律性的影响因素作用。 突变点检测分析的10个突变点,与我国公共卫生政策的调整或重点公共卫生事件的发生,几乎能保持一致。
    结论 将信号分析的方法和结果解释应用到疾病的监测和预警中,有诸多好处。 可以快速分析疾病的周期性,挖掘更多的病因线索。 共振现象和周期性的冲击,是传统流行病学研究的短板,信号分析可以直观的反映出疾病的这两种隐藏现象。 重要的是,突变点的检测具有很强的公共卫生意义,尤其是在疾病监测领域中的应用,可以敏感的发现“重要事件”的关键节点,为制定卫生政策提供参考。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of pneumonia in Gansu province from 2019 to 2024, and provide reference for the pilot reform of “medical treatment and prevention integration” in Gansu.
    Methods The incidence data of pneumonia in Gansu during this period were collected from the Gansu Provincial National Health Information Platform, and spectral analysis and mutation point detection algorithms were used for signal analysis to explore the new epidemiological characteristics of pneumonia.
    Results The signal wave formed by the number of pneumonia patients in Gansu from 2019 to 2024 was a typical unstable sine one. The amplitude fluctuated greatly, and the waveform showed no obvious periodicity. During the surveillance period, there were abnormal fluctuations or transient disturbances in the number of pneumonia patients seeking treatment in Gansu. The signal wave formed by the number of hospital visits of patients with pneumonia was similar to a Delta one, indicating the incidence of abnormal conditions. The number of hospital visits of the pneumonia patients showed a low-frequency dominant characteristic, with an amplitude of 150000 within the frequency range of 1.098−4.277 Hz. The number of the hospital visits was affected by resonance and periodicity, indicating the presence of commodities and regular influencing factors. The 10 mutation points detected and analyzed were almost consistent with the adjustment of public health policies and the incidences of key public health emergencies in China.
    Conclusion Application of signal analysis and result interpretation in disease surveillance and early warning can benefit the rapid analysis on the periodicity of diseases and identification of more causal factors. The impacts of resonance and periodicity are the shortcomings of traditional epidemiological research, and signal analysis can intuitively reflect these two hidden phenomena of diseases. Importantly, the detection of mutation points has great public health significance, especially in the field of disease surveillance, by which key nodes of “important events” can be identified and health policy-making can be informed.

     

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