Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of public health emergencies in Taiyuan of Shanxi province from 2004-2023, and provide evidence for the targeted prevention and control of public health emergencies.
Methods Excel 2013 and R 4.4.0 were used to analyze the information of public health emergencies in Taiyuan from 2003 to 2024 collected from National Public Health Emergency Management Information System. ARIMA (0,0,1) model was used to predict the incidence of public health emergencies caused by infectious diseases from 2024 to 2028.
Results A total of 437 public health emergencies were reported in Taiyuan from 2004 to 2023, involving 7 490 cases and 16 deaths and affecting 1 426 159 persons. The attack rate was 0.53%. The event levels were mainly unclassified, accounting for 91.30%. Infectious disease epidemics and the events of environmental factors accounted for 50.57% and 44.85% respectively..The respiratory infectious disease epidemics accounted for 85.97%. The case number of respiratory infectious diseases accounted for 79.40%. The incidence peak was during October - January. The results of the local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed high-high clustering in Yingze and Xiaodian districts in Taiyuan. The infectious disease epodemics were usually detected in shorter times compared with food poisoning and environmental factor events, but it took a longer time to control. The results of ARIMA (0,0,1) model showed that the number of reported public health emergencies caused by infectious diseases was stable in Taiyuan from 2024 to 2028.
Conclusion The public health emergencies were mainly infectious disease epidemics and environmental factor events in Taiyuan .The number of infectious disease cases was relatively high. The timeliness of infectious disease epidemic detection and verification were high, but the control needed longer time. It is important to strengthen surveillance, early warning, and risk assessment capabilities to undersatnd the evolving characteristics of public health emergencies.. Targeted prevention and control measures should be developed according to local conditions .Meanwhile, it is also important to improve the efficiency of public health emergency response, accelerate the integration of medical care and prevention and conduct joint prevention and control.