2004-2023年山西省太原市突发公共卫生事件流行特征分析

Epidemiological characteristics of public health emergencies in Taiyuan, Shanxi, 2004−2023

  • 摘要:
    目的  分析2004—2023年山西省太原市突发公共卫生事件流行特征,为有效应对突发公共卫生事件和制定防控措施提供科学依据。
    方法  选择2004—2023年突发公共卫生事件管理信息系统中太原市突发公共卫生事件资料,采用描述流行病学方法,运用Excel 2013和R 4.4.0软件进行统计分析,使用自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)(0,0,1)对2024—2028年传染病突发公共卫生事件进行预测。
    结果  2004—2023年太原市共报告突发公共卫生事件437起,累计报告发病7 490例,死亡16例,波及1 426 159人,罹患率0.53%;以未分级事件为主,占91.30%;传染病事件和环境因素事件分别占50.57%和44.85%;呼吸道传染病事件数和发病数占传染病事件报告数和发病数的85.97%和79.40%;报告高峰为每年10月至次年1月;局部空间自相关分析结果显示,太原市迎泽区和小店区呈现高–高聚集特征;传染病事件发现时间早于中毒和环境因素事件,但处置时间较长;使用ARIMA(0,0,1)模型进行预测,2024—2028年太原市传染病突发公共卫生事件报告数处于平稳状态。
    结论  太原市突发公共卫生事件以传染病事件和环境因素事件为主,传染病事件发病人数占比较高,发现及时性、核实及时性较高,但事件控制时效较长。 应加强监测预警和风险研判,掌握突发公共卫生事件特征变化情况,各地区结合自身特点制定针对性防控措施,提高疫情处置效率,加快医防融合,部门沟通和联防联控。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of public health emergencies in Taiyuan of Shanxi province from 2004-2023, and provide evidence for the targeted prevention and control of public health emergencies.
    Methods Excel 2013 and R 4.4.0 were used to analyze the information of public health emergencies in Taiyuan from 2003 to 2024 collected from National Public Health Emergency Management Information System. ARIMA (0,0,1) model was used to predict the incidence of public health emergencies caused by infectious diseases from 2024 to 2028.
    Results A total of 437 public health emergencies were reported in Taiyuan from 2004 to 2023, involving 7 490 cases and 16 deaths and affecting 1 426 159 persons. The attack rate was 0.53%. The event levels were mainly unclassified, accounting for 91.30%. Infectious disease epidemics and the events of environmental factors accounted for 50.57% and 44.85% respectively..The respiratory infectious disease epidemics accounted for 85.97%. The case number of respiratory infectious diseases accounted for 79.40%. The incidence peak was during October - January. The results of the local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed high-high clustering in Yingze and Xiaodian districts in Taiyuan. The infectious disease epodemics were usually detected in shorter times compared with food poisoning and environmental factor events, but it took a longer time to control. The results of ARIMA (0,0,1) model showed that the number of reported public health emergencies caused by infectious diseases was stable in Taiyuan from 2024 to 2028.
    Conclusion The public health emergencies were mainly infectious disease epidemics and environmental factor events in Taiyuan .The number of infectious disease cases was relatively high. The timeliness of infectious disease epidemic detection and verification were high, but the control needed longer time. It is important to strengthen surveillance, early warning, and risk assessment capabilities to undersatnd the evolving characteristics of public health emergencies.. Targeted prevention and control measures should be developed according to local conditions .Meanwhile, it is also important to improve the efficiency of public health emergency response, accelerate the integration of medical care and prevention and conduct joint prevention and control.

     

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