中国2005-2020年各时期麻疹流行病学及空间分布特征分析

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution of measles in China, 2005−2020

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析中国2005—2020年不同时期麻疹空间分布特征,为制定麻疹防控措施提供科学指导与建议。
    方法 通过国家人口健康科学数据−公共卫生科学数据中心收集2005—2020年中国31个省级行政区(不包含香港、澳门、台湾)的麻疹发病资料,应用SPSS 20.0软件对我国2005—2020年麻疹总体发病情况进行趋势性分析,针对我国不同时期麻疹发病特征进行描述流行病学分析,采用ArcGIS 10.8软件探索我国2005—2020年各时期(2005—2008年、2009—2013年和2014—2020年)麻疹发病情况的空间自相关性和冷热点区域。
    结果 2005—2020年麻疹发病总体呈下降趋势,差异有统计学意义(趋势χ2 =536.347,P<0.001)。麻疹发病集中在3—5月,年龄越小,麻疹发病率越大且男女性别比越大。 2005—2008年、2009—2013年和2014—2020年各时期麻疹年均发病率为8.16/10万、2.00/10万、1.38/10万。 全局自相关结果显示,中国2005—2008年、2009—2013年和2014—2020年各时期麻疹发病分布均存在空间自相关且呈聚集分布,全局Moran's I指数分别为0.20、0.30和0.43(Z=2.138,P=0.032;Z=2.866,P=0.004;Z=4.375,P<0.001);局部空间自相关分析显示,中国2005—2020年各时期麻疹发病“高−高”关联模式主要集中于西部地区,2009—2013年也存在于北京市和天津市;麻疹发病热点区域探索结果与局部空间自相关分析结果基本一致,冷点区域仅存在于2009—2013年中部地区的贵州省、重庆市和湖南省。
    结论 中国2005—2020年麻疹发病总体呈下降趋势,但不同年龄组麻疹疫情控制效果存在差异。 各时期麻疹发病存在明显的空间聚集性,主要集中在西部地区。 年龄因素和西部地区应作为今后麻疹疫情防控工作的重点。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of measles in different periods from 2005 to 2020 in China, and provide evidence and suggestions for the development of measles prevention and control measures.
    Methods The incidence data of measles in 31 provincial administrative regions (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) in China from 2005 to 2020 were collected from National Population Health Sciences Data-Public Health Sciences data Center. The overall incidence trend of measles in China from 2005 to 2020 was analyzed with SPSS 20.0. Described epidemiological analysis was conducted on the incidence of measles in different periods and ArcGIS 10.8 was used to explore the spatial autocorrelation and cold hot-spot areas of measles incidence during 2005−2008, 2009−2013, and 2014−2020.
    Results From 2005 to 2020, the incidence of measles showed a decrease trend in China during different periods, and the difference were significant (trend χ2 =536.347, P<0.001). Measles mainly occurred during March-May, and the younger the age, the higher the incidence of measles and the greater the male-to-female sex ratio. The average annual incidence of measles during 2005−2008, 2009−2013 and 2014−2020 were 8.16/100 000, 2.00/100 000 and 1.38/100 000, respectively. The global autocorrelation results showed that the distribution of measles incidence showed spatial autocorrelation and clustering distribution from 2005 to 2008, from 2009 to 2013 and from 2014 to 2020, and the global Moran's I index was 0.20, 0.30 and 0.43, respectively (Z=2.138, P=0.032; Z=2.866, P=0.004; Z=4.375, P<0.001); Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the “high−high” correlation pattern of measles incidence was mainly observed in western China in different periods from 2005 to 2020, but also in Beijing and Tianjin from 2009 to 2013. The results of measles hot spot analysis were basically consistent with the results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the cold spots only existed in Guizhou, Chongqing and Hunan in the central China from 2009 to 2013.
    Conclusion The overall incidence of measles in China from 2005 to 2020 showed a downward trend, the measles control effects differed in different age groups, and the incidence of measles in different periods showed obvious spatial clustering, especially in western China. Therefore, the age factor and the western region should be the focus of measles prevention and control in the future.

     

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