2024年11月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in November 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2024年11月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2024年11月监测到19种传染病在全球38个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。 对我国的输入风险方面,中风险事件22个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件21个,中风险事件27个。
    结论 建议一般关注北美洲、欧洲和亚洲的登革热,美国、英国和越南的猴痘,巴西、印度和孟加拉国的基孔肯雅热,埃塞俄比亚和巴基斯坦的脊髓灰质炎,巴西、玻利维亚的A组链球菌感染,美国的东部马脑炎,德国的西尼罗病毒病和印度的寨卡病毒病可能带来的输入风险。 海外旅行风险方面,建议出国旅行者重点关注大洋洲、非洲、南美洲、亚洲、中美洲的登革热,非洲加纳、苏丹等6国的霍乱,巴西、印度的基孔肯雅热,巴西的奥罗普切热以及印度的寨卡病毒病疫情。 相较10月,11月还需一般关注佛得角、特立尼达和多巴哥的登革热,开曼群岛的奥罗普切热,巴西和玻利维亚的A组链球菌感染以及刚果(金)不明原因疾病可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in November 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In November 2024, 19 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 38 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 22 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 21 high-risk events and 27 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to pay general attention to dengue fever in North America, Europe, and Asia, mpox in the United States, United Kingdom, and Vietnam, chikungunya fever in Brazil, India, and Bangladesh, poliomyelitis in Ethiopia and Pakistan, Group A streptococcal infection in Brazil and Bolivia, eastern equine encephalitis in USA, West Nile virus disease in Germany, and Zika virus disease in India, which may pose import risks. In terms of overseas travel risks, it is recommended that international travelers pay close attention to dengue fever in Oceania, Africa, South America, Asia, and Central America, cholera in six countries including Ghana and Sudan in Africa, chikungunya fever in Brazil and India, Oropuche fever in Brazil, and Zika virus disease in India. Compared to October, general attention should be paid to dengue fever in Cape Verde and Trinidad and Tobago, Oropuche fever in the Cayman Islands, Group A streptococcal infections in Brazil and Bolivia, as well as potential infection risks from unknown diseases in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

     

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