2025年2月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, February 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2025年2月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾省,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果 预计2025年2月突发公共卫生事件数可能较2025年1月有所降低,以传染病类事件为主。 当前急性呼吸道传染病以流行性感冒(流感)为主,仍处于流行期,但流行强度逐渐下降。 我国北方、南方省份流感病毒检测阳性率分别在2025年第1、2周达到峰值,并持续下降,当前处于中低水平。 2025年1月报告了4例人感染H9N2禽流感病例,均为散发,仍主要通过暴露于禽类而感染,未发现续发病例,我国人感染禽流感疫情整体风险未发生改变。 2025年1月底我国报告41例猴痘Ⅱb亚分支病例,6例Ⅰb亚分支病例;预计猴痘病毒Ⅱb亚分支疫情仍将低水平传播,并存在猴痘病毒Ⅰb亚分支疫情输入我国及导致密切接触者续发传播风险。 近期坦桑尼亚马尔堡病毒病疫情(已报告10例,均死亡)以及乌干达埃博拉病毒病疫情(已报告7例病例,死亡1例)输入我国的风险低。
    结论 对急性呼吸道传染病、流感、人感染禽流感、猴痘、马尔堡病毒病、埃博拉病毒病等予以关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province, the same below) in February 2025.
    Methods Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments, the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial (autonomous region and municipal) centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.
    Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in February 2025 may decrease compared with January 2025. The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases. At present, influenza is the main cause of acute respiratory infectious diseases, which is still in epidemic period, but its activity is decreasing. In northern and southern provinces of China, the positive rates of influenza virus detection peaked in the first and second weeks of 2025, respectively, and have been continuously declining. Currently, they are at medium - to - low levels. In January 2025, four human cases of avian influenza H9N2 were reported. All of them were sporadic cases, and infection still mainly occurred through exposure to poultry. No secondary cases were detected. The overall risk of human infection with avian influenza in China has remained unchanged. By the end of January 2025, 41 cases of mpox cladeⅡb and 6 cases of cladeⅠb were reported in China. In the short term, the epidemic of mpox cladeⅡb in China will remain at a low - level fluctuating state. It is predicted that the epidemic of mpox cladeⅡb will continue to spread at low level, and there is a risk of mpox cladeⅠb being imported into China and causing secondary transmission in close contacts. The risk of recent Marburg virus disease outbreaks in Tanzania(10 cases have been reported, and all have died) and Ebola virus disease outbreaks in Uganda(seven cases have been reported, and one case has died) being imported into China is low.
    Conclusion Attention should be paid to acute respiratory infectious diseases, influenza, human infection with avian influenza, mpox, Marburg virus disease, and Ebola virus disease.

     

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