岳玉娟, 任东升, 刘起勇. 2005-2013年中国大陆登革热疫情时空分布[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(7): 555-560. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.07.008
引用本文: 岳玉娟, 任东升, 刘起勇. 2005-2013年中国大陆登革热疫情时空分布[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(7): 555-560. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.07.008
YUE Yu-juan, REN Dong-sheng, LIU Qi-yong. Spatial-temporal distribution of dengue fever in the mainland of China, 2005-2013[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(7): 555-560. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.07.008
Citation: YUE Yu-juan, REN Dong-sheng, LIU Qi-yong. Spatial-temporal distribution of dengue fever in the mainland of China, 2005-2013[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(7): 555-560. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.07.008

2005-2013年中国大陆登革热疫情时空分布

Spatial-temporal distribution of dengue fever in the mainland of China, 2005-2013

  • 摘要: 目的 分析2005-2013年中国大陆登革热疫情时空分布特征。方法 基于2005-2013年中国大陆31个省、直辖市和自治区网络报告的登革热疫情数据和人口数据,建立地理信息数据库,导入GeoDa 1.2.0和SaTScan 9.3软件,进行全局、局部空间自相关分析和时空扫描聚类分析,确定登革热时空热点区域。结果 2005-2013年中国大陆地区报告的登革热总病例数为8107例,年均发病率为0.0682/10万。广东省和云南省的年均发病率明显高于其余省。广东省具有最高年均发病率,为0.5690/10万。2005-2013年中国大陆地区登革热疫情呈明显聚集性分布。2005、2007和2010-2012年全局型空间自相关系数Moran's I均具有统计学意义。局部自相关分析结果表明, 2005、2007、2010和2011年广东省处于高-高区域;2005、2007和2010年,福建省处于高-高区域;2011年和2012年,海南省处于高-高区域;2006、2008、2009和2013年中国大陆所有地区均未处于高-高区域。时空扫描聚类分析表明,一级聚类区域位于除2005年和2011年外的广东省, 2008年和2013年的广西、海南、贵州和云南省(自治区), 2007年的福建省, 2009年的浙江省。结论 登革热疫情存在明显的时空聚集特征,主要集中在广东、福建和海南等沿海城市,尤其是广东省的空间聚集特征明显。各时空聚集区域将为我国制定登革热防控策略和评价措施效果提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Objective To understand the spatial temporal distribution of dengue fever epidemics in the mainland of China during 2005-2013. Methods Geographic information database was established by using the incidence data of dengue fever and demographic data reported in 27 provinces and 4 municipalities in China from 2005 to 2013. Global indication of spatial autocorrelation (GISA), local indication of spatial autocorrelation (LISA), and spatial-temporal clustering analysis were conducted with software GeoDa 1.2.0 and SaTScan 9.3 to determine high risk areas of dengue fever. Results A total of 8107 cases of dengue fever was reported in China during 2005-2013, the average annual incidence was 0.0682/lakh. The incidences in Guangdong and Yunnan provinces were much higher than those in other provinces. The incidence was highest in Guangdong province (0.5690/lakh). The clustering of the distribution of dengue fever was found. The annual GISA coefficient Moran's I were statistically different in 2005, 2007 and during 2010-2012. According to LISA analysis, the high-high area was in Guangdong province in 2005, 2007 and during 2010-2011, the high-high area was in Fujian province in 2005, 2007 and 2010 and the high-high area was in Hainan province during 2011-2012. No high-high areas were found in 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2013. Spatial temporal clustering analysis showed that the most likely clustering was in Guangdong province (except 2005 and 2011), Guangxi, Hainan, Guizhou and Yunnan provinces (2008 and 2013), Fujian province (2007) and Zhejiang province (2009). Conclusion Obvious spatial temporal clustering of dengue fever distribution was found in the mainland of China. The clustering areas were mainly in Guangdong, Hainan and Fujian provinces, especially in Guangdong province.

     

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