何涛, 王犇, 张入学, 张凤娇. 按照地域分层进行传染病暴发早期探测的效果分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(11): 925-929. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.11.009
引用本文: 何涛, 王犇, 张入学, 张凤娇. 按照地域分层进行传染病暴发早期探测的效果分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(11): 925-929. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.11.009
HE Tao, WANG Ben, ZHANG Ru-xue, ZHANG Feng-jiao. Geographically stratified early detection of communicable disease outbreaks[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(11): 925-929. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.11.009
Citation: HE Tao, WANG Ben, ZHANG Ru-xue, ZHANG Feng-jiao. Geographically stratified early detection of communicable disease outbreaks[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(11): 925-929. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.11.009

按照地域分层进行传染病暴发早期探测的效果分析

Geographically stratified early detection of communicable disease outbreaks

  • 摘要: 目的 分析按照地域分层进行传染病暴发早期探测方法的应用效果,为有效改进与完善预警方法提供依据。 方法 采用Microsoft Excel软件和Visual Basic for Application程序自行研制传染病实时监控预警系统,预警周期一般选择7 d,预警阈值依据国家规定的突发公共卫生事件、暴发疫情判定标准进行设置。从传染病网络直报系统中下载报告卡,导入传染病实时监控预警系统,在县、乡、村级和学校三个层面,逐层缩小地域范围,分别将预警传染病的实际发病数与预警阈值对比,最终定位于病例集中的村级或学校,从而获取预警信息,并对其进行响应与处理。对预警传染病的报告病例数、预警信息数、初步核实和现场调查结果进行分析,以预警信息响应率、疑似事件信息比例、现场调查率、灵敏度和阳性预测值作为评价指标。 结果 2007-2013年,按照地域分层进行传染病暴发早期探测,共获取预警信息148条,涉及14种传染病。经过初步核实,判定为疑似事件的共计10种传染病的127条预警信息,2 h内响应率为100.00%,疑似事件信息比例为85.81%;通过现场调查,证实85起暴发事件,24 h内现场调查率为100.00%,暴发探测灵敏度为100.00%,阳性预测值为57.43%。 结论 本预警方法能够早期探测传染病暴发疫情,实用性强,准确性高,但在许多方面还需要进一步改进与探索。

     

    Abstract: Objective To analyze the effect of geographically stratified early detection of communicable disease outbreak and provide evidence for the further improvement of the warning method. Methods Communicable disease real-time surveillance and early system was developed by using Microsoft Excel software and Visual Basic for Application program. The early warning period was 7 days, the early warning threshold was set according to the national definitions of public health emergency and outbreak. The report cards were downloaded from the communicable disease reporting system and used in the early warning system. Three surveillance levels were set, i.e. county level, township level and village/school level. The actual case number was compared with early warning threshold respectively, and finally the village or school where cases clustered was determined. Thus early warning information was obtained and related response was made. The analyses on the reported case number, early warning signal number, and verifying or field survey results were condcuted. The evaluation indicators included the response rate of early warning signals, proportion of suspect events, field survey rate, sensitivity and positive predictive value. Results From 2007 to 2013, a total of 148 early warning signals, involving 14 communicable diseases, were obtained through geographically stratified early detection of communicable disease outbreak. After verifying, 127 suspect events (85.81%), involving 10 communicable diseases, were confirmed. The response rate within 2 hours was 100.00%. After field survey, 85 outbreaks were confirmed. The survey rate within 24 hours was 100.00%. The sensitivity was 100.00% and the positive predictive value was 57.43%. Conclusion This early waning method is feasible and accurate, which can be used in the detection of communicable outbreaks in early stage, but further improvement is still needed.

     

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