孟玲, 任东升, 随海田, 陈涛, 罗莉, 任瑞琦, 洪志恒, 涂文校, 倪大新, 金连梅. 2016年10月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2016, 31(10): 804-807. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.10.003
引用本文: 孟玲, 任东升, 随海田, 陈涛, 罗莉, 任瑞琦, 洪志恒, 涂文校, 倪大新, 金连梅. 2016年10月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2016, 31(10): 804-807. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.10.003
MENG Ling, REN Dong-sheng, SUI Hai-tian, CHEN Tao, LUO Li, REN Rui-qi, HONG Zhi-heng, TU Wen-xiao, NI Da-xin, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, October 2016[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2016, 31(10): 804-807. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.10.003
Citation: MENG Ling, REN Dong-sheng, SUI Hai-tian, CHEN Tao, LUO Li, REN Rui-qi, HONG Zhi-heng, TU Wen-xiao, NI Da-xin, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, October 2016[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2016, 31(10): 804-807. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.10.003

2016年10月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, October 2016

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2016年10月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计10月全国总报告事件数和病例数将与9月相当。登革热仍将维持较高水平,部分南方重点省份将继续发生本地疫情。寨卡病毒病输入我国的风险加大,输入后引发本地传播的风险增加。黄热病输入风险较前期有所下降。同时,需继续关注中东地区中东呼吸综合征的疫情动态和输入风险。近期我国内地仍可能出现人感染H7N9禽流感散发病例,其他可感染人类的禽流感也可能有散发病例报告。病毒性腹泻等肠道传染病的发生风险仍较高。流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、水痘等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高。结论 2016年10月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,将与9月相当;需关注登革热、寨卡病毒病、黄热病等媒介伊蚊传染病、以及人感染禽流感、感染性腹泻、流行性感冒等传染病疫情引发的公共卫生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in October 2016. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in October would be similar to that in September in 2016. The risk of continuous local dengue outbreaks in southern provinces remains high. Both the risk of importation of Zika virus disease to China and the risk of the local transmission following the importation of the disease would increase, but the risk of importation of yellow fever would decrease. The possibility of importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) from Saudi Arabia still exists. The sporadic human infection with H7N9 virus and other avian influenza viruses might be still reported in October. The incidences of enteric infectious diseases, such as viral diarrhea, would be still high. The incidence of respiratory diseases, such as seasonal influenza, mumps and varicella, would increase seasonally. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in October 2016 would be similar to those during the same periods in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue, Zika virus disease and yellow fever, human infection with avian influenza virus, viral diarrhea and seasonal influenza.

     

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