房元圣, 武洁雯, 纪瀚然, 庞明樊, 梁作如, 杨昕娉, 张荣娜, 赵青, 李洁, 戚晓鹏. 2021年12月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(1): 12-16. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202101210009
引用本文: 房元圣, 武洁雯, 纪瀚然, 庞明樊, 梁作如, 杨昕娉, 张荣娜, 赵青, 李洁, 戚晓鹏. 2021年12月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(1): 12-16. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202101210009
Fang Yuansheng, Wu Jiewen, Ji Hanran, Pang Mingfan, Liang Zuoru, Yang Xinping, Zhang Rongna, Zhao Qing, Li Jie, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in December 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(1): 12-16. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202101210009
Citation: Fang Yuansheng, Wu Jiewen, Ji Hanran, Pang Mingfan, Liang Zuoru, Yang Xinping, Zhang Rongna, Zhao Qing, Li Jie, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in December 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(1): 12-16. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202101210009

2021年12月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in December 2021

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2021年12月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。
      方法  根据WHO及美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。 对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”、“WHO各分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。
      结果  与2021年11月相比,2021年12月全球新增确诊病例增长62.41%,全球新增死亡病例增长2.48%,非洲区新增确诊和死亡病例均最多,增长率分别为903.40%和49.00%,其余各区除东南亚及东地中海区均呈上升趋势,其中欧洲区、美洲区(北)增幅明显。 全球每新增1 000万确诊病例用时呈现缩短趋势。 美国、英国、法国、西班牙和意大利是全球重点关注国家;黎巴嫩、南非、津巴布韦、埃塞俄比亚、加拿大、墨西哥、阿根廷、哥伦比亚、澳大利亚、越南和韩国是各WHO分区一般关注国家。
      结论  全球正处于第四波大的疫情上升阶段,对于全球重点关注国家要持续加强疫情监测,实时调整入境管控政策,并同相关机构建立沟通机制,互通有无,及时预警。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in December 2021 and the risk of importation.
      Methods   According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by WHO and Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighbouring countries of special concern”.
      Results   Compared with the previous month, the number of confirmed cases and deaths increased by 62.41% and 2.48% globally in December 2021. The number of newly confirmed cases increased by 903.40% and deaths increased by 49.00% in the Africa region, and all other regions expect South-East Asia and Eastern Mediterranean Region showed a upward trend,especially European and North America Region. Globally, there was trend that it took much less time for a 10 million case increasing. The United States, the United Kingdom, France, Spain and Italy were countries with global concern. Lebanon, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Australia, Vietnam and South Korea were the countries of general concern in each WHO sub-region.
      Conclusion   The world is in the fourth wave of COVID-19. It is necessary to continuously monitor countries with global focus, adjust entry control policies in real time, and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies to exchange information and provide timely warnings.

     

/

返回文章
返回