赵青, 武洁雯, 杨昕娉, 房元圣, 庞明樊, 纪瀚然, 梁作如, 张荣娜, 李洁, 戚晓鹏. 2022年1月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(2): 154-158. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202202190047
引用本文: 赵青, 武洁雯, 杨昕娉, 房元圣, 庞明樊, 纪瀚然, 梁作如, 张荣娜, 李洁, 戚晓鹏. 2022年1月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(2): 154-158. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202202190047
Zhao Qing, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinping, Fang Yuansheng, Pang Mingfan, Ji Hanran, Liang Zuoru, Zhang Rongna, Li Jie, Qi Xiaopeng.. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in January 2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(2): 154-158. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202202190047
Citation: Zhao Qing, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinping, Fang Yuansheng, Pang Mingfan, Ji Hanran, Liang Zuoru, Zhang Rongna, Li Jie, Qi Xiaopeng.. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in January 2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(2): 154-158. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202202190047

2022年1月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in January 2022

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2022年1月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。
      方法  根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。 对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”“WHO各分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。
      结果  与2021年12月相比,2022年1月全球新增确诊病例增长263.97%,全球新增死亡病例增长11.00%,欧洲区新增确诊和死亡病例均最多,除非洲区新增确诊病增长率降低,其余各区均呈快速上升趋势。 全球每新增1 000万确诊病例用时呈现缩短趋势,每新增50万死亡病例间隔时间呈现延长趋势。 美国、法国、印度、意大利、英国、西班牙、巴西、德国、阿根廷和澳大利亚为全球重点关注国家;墨西哥、加拿大、泰国、孟加拉国、黎巴嫩、突尼斯、伊朗、日本和菲律宾是各WHO分区一般关注国家。 俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、阿富汗、塔吉克斯坦和蒙古为周边十四国特别关注国家。
      结论  全球疫情在2022年前后加速蔓延,对全球重点关注国家应保持持续监测,特别关注周边十四国疫情走势及防控政策,严防输入风险,同时完善防疫主体之间的沟通交流机制,对疫情采取及时有效的防控措施。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in January 2022 and the risk of importation.
      Methods   According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighbouring countries of special concern”.
      Results  Compared with the previous month, the number of confirmed cases and deaths increased by 263.97% and 11.00% globally in January 2022. The European region had the largest number of confirmed cases and deaths. Expect Africa experienced a decline of newly confirmed cases, all other regions showed a rapid upward trend. The time taken for every 10 million new confirmed cases globally showed a shortening trend, and the time taken for every 500 000 new deaths showed an increase trend. The United States, France, India, Italy, the United Kingdom, Spain, Brazil, Germany, Argentina and Australia were countries with global concern; Mexico, Canada, Thailand, Bangladesh, Lebanon, Tunisia, Iran, Japan and the Philippines were countries with general concern in each WHO sub-region. Russia, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Mongolia were countries with special concern among the 14 neighbouring countries.
      Conclusion  The global COVID-19 pandemic is still spreading rapidly in January 2022. It is necessary to continuously monitor the countries with global concern and pay special attention to the prevention and control policies of the 14 neighbouring countries. Improve the communication mechanism among epidemic prevention entities and take timely and effective measures against the COVID-19 importation risk.

     

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