陈太好, 汪俊华, 张江萍, 叶新贵, 石柱, 赵鹏, 冯军. 基于空间统计学的贵州省甲型肝炎时空分布模式分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(8): 1021-1025. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202203040085
引用本文: 陈太好, 汪俊华, 张江萍, 叶新贵, 石柱, 赵鹏, 冯军. 基于空间统计学的贵州省甲型肝炎时空分布模式分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(8): 1021-1025. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202203040085
Chen Taihao, Wang Junhua, Zhang Jiangping, Ye Xingui, Shi Zhu, Zhao Peng, Feng Jun. Spatiotemporal distribution pattern of viral hepatitis A in Guizhou based on spatial statistics[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(8): 1021-1025. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202203040085
Citation: Chen Taihao, Wang Junhua, Zhang Jiangping, Ye Xingui, Shi Zhu, Zhao Peng, Feng Jun. Spatiotemporal distribution pattern of viral hepatitis A in Guizhou based on spatial statistics[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(8): 1021-1025. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202203040085

基于空间统计学的贵州省甲型肝炎时空分布模式分析

Spatiotemporal distribution pattern of viral hepatitis A in Guizhou based on spatial statistics

  • 摘要:
      目的   分析贵州省甲型肝炎(甲肝)时空分布模式,为贵州省制定有针对性的甲肝防控策略提供参考依据。
      方法   从传染病报告信息管理系统收集2009—2018年贵州省各县甲肝病例报告数据,利用空间自相关、时空扫描统计量等空间统计学方法分析甲肝的时空分布模式。
      结果   2009—2018年贵州省累计报告甲肝病例10 471例,年平均报告发病率为2.84/10万,报告发病率呈现下降趋势(趋势χ2=8280.97,P<0.001);2009—2018年贵州省甲肝发病整体存在空间聚集性,全局Moran's I值介于0.055~0.310,除2011年,其余年份甲肝发病有空间自相关(P<0.05),共探测到甲肝高–高聚集区44个,主要集中在黔中地区,低–低聚集区54个,主要集中黔东南地区;时空扫描结果显示,2009—2018年贵州省甲肝发病存在6个时空聚集区,每个聚集区差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05),这些聚集区大部分位于贵阳市、黔南州、黔东南州、遵义市、铜仁市和毕节市的部分区(县)。
      结论   2009—2018年贵州省甲肝发病呈现显著的下降趋势,全省整体存在时空聚集性,聚集区主要集中在黔南州和黔东南州的大部分区(县),提示研究区域应重点加强聚集区域的防控。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of viral hepatitis A in Guizhou province, and provide reference for the development of specific prevention and control strategies of hepatitis A in Guizhou.
      Methods  The report data of hepatitis A cases in each county of Guizhou from 2009 to 2018 were collected from the infectious disease report information management system, and the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of hepatitis A was analyzed by spatial autocorrelation and spatiotemporal scanning statistics.
      Results   From 2009 to 2018, a total of 10 471 cases of hepatitis A were reported in Guizhou, with an average annual incidence of 2.84/100 000, showing a downward trend (trend χ2 =8 280.97, P<0.001). From 2009 to 2018, the overall incidence of hepatitis A in Guizhou showed spatial clustering, Global Moran's I values ranged from 0.055 to 0.310, There was a spatial autocorrelation in the incidence of hepatitis A in all years except 2011 (P<0.05), A total of 44 high-high clustering areas of hepatitis A were detected, mainly in central Guizhou, and 54 low-low clustering areas, mainly in southeast Guizhou, the spatiotemporal scanning results showed that there were 6 spatiotemporal clustering areas of hepatitis A in Guizhou from 2009 to 2018, and the differences of each clustering were significant (P<0.05). Most of these clustering areas were in Guiyang, Qiannan, Qiandongnan, Zunyi, Tongren and some counties of Bijie.
      Conclusion   The incidence of hepatitis A in Guizhou showed a significant downward trend from 2009 to 2018, and there was a spatiotemporal clustering in the whole province, and the clustering areas were mainly in Qiannan prefecture and most districts and counties in Qiandongnan prefecture, suggesting that the research should be focused on strengthening the hepatitis A prevention and control in the clustering areas.

     

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