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方博, 钱耐思, 陈蕾, 乔佳颖, 晋珊, 蔡任之, 王春芳. 2013－2017年上海市PM2.5短期暴露对人群呼吸系统疾病超额死亡的风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(8): 1112-1117. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202204280183
引用本文: 方博, 钱耐思, 陈蕾, 乔佳颖, 晋珊, 蔡任之, 王春芳. 2013－2017年上海市PM2.5短期暴露对人群呼吸系统疾病超额死亡的风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(8): 1112-1117. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202204280183
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Fang Bo, Qian Naisi, Chen Lei, Qiao Jiaying, Jin Shan, Cai Renzhi, Wang Chunfang. Assessing excess respiratory disease mortality related to short-term exposure to PM2.5 in Shanghai, 2013−2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(8): 1112-1117. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202204280183
Citation: Fang Bo, Qian Naisi, Chen Lei, Qiao Jiaying, Jin Shan, Cai Renzhi, Wang Chunfang. Assessing excess respiratory disease mortality related to short-term exposure to PM2.5 in Shanghai, 2013−2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(8): 1112-1117. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202204280183
shu

2013－2017年上海市PM2.5短期暴露对人群呼吸系统疾病超额死亡的风险评估

Assessing excess respiratory disease mortality related to short-term exposure to PM2.5 in Shanghai, 2013−2017

    摘要
  • 摘要:
      目的  研究2013—2017年上海市每日大气细颗粒物（PM2.5）污染短期暴露与居民呼吸系统疾病死亡的剂量反应关系，定量评估PM2.5浓度超标导致的呼吸系统疾病超额死亡数。
      方法  收集上海市气象、大气污染和户籍居民死亡数据，采用差分整合自回归移动平均模型分析每日PM2.5浓度和呼吸系统疾病死亡数的变化趋势，采用广义相加模型分析PM2.5导致的人群呼吸系统疾病超额死亡风险，估算因PM2.5浓度超标导致的人群超额死亡数。
      结果  2013—2017年上海市大气PM2.5浓度总体呈下降趋势，有冬春季高、夏秋季低的季节性变动特征，历年浓度中位数均高于世界卫生组织（WHO）推荐每日浓度限值标准（25 μg/m³）。 居民呼吸系统疾病死亡数与大气PM2.5浓度在长期性、季节性时间尺度均正相关。 大气PM2.5浓度每升高10 μg/m³，当日呼吸系统疾病死亡数增加0.36%（95% CI: 0.10%～0.63%)。 2013—2017年上海市大气PM2.5浓度超标（WHO推荐标准）天数为1 382 d（75.68%），PM2.5浓度超标导致的呼吸系统疾病超额死亡数为611例（占呼吸系统疾病总死亡的1.09%），超额死亡数逐年下降。
      结论  2013—2017年上海市大气PM2.5浓度及其导致的呼吸系统疾病超额死亡均表现出总体下降趋势，大气污染防治措施产生较好的健康收益。 研究期间上海市每日大气PM2.5浓度超标比例较高，需进一步加强人群健康防护和疾病控制措施。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To analyze the dose-response relationship between the short-term daily exposure to fine particulate matter (fine particulate matter, PM2.5) and respiratory disease mortality in Shanghai from 2013 to 2017, estimate quantitatively the excess mortality of respiratory diseases due to high concentration exposure to PM2.5.
      Methods  The data collected included meteorological information, air pollution information and death data in Shanghai. Auto-regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was used to analyze the trend of ambient PM2.5 concentration and respiratory disease mortality. Generalized additive model of time series analysis was used to analyze the effects of PM2.5 on risk of excess respiratory disease mortality to estimate excess respiratory disease mortality due to high concentration exposure to PM2.5.
      Results  From 2013 to 2017, the concentration of PM2.5 decreased significantly year by year in Shanghai. The seasonal variation of PM2.5 concentration was obvious, with peak in winter and trough in summer. The annual median of PM2.5 concentration was higher than the WHO recommended daily concentration (25 μg/m³). There was a significant positive correlation between respiratory disease mortality and PM2.5 concentration in terms of both long-term and seasonal time exposures. The daily respiratory disease mortality increased by 0.36% for every 10 μg/m³ increase in PM2.5 concentration (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.10%−0.63%). The number of days when PM2.5 concentration exceeded WHO recommended limits in Shanghai was 1 382 days (75.68%) , and the number of excess respiratory disease mortality due to high concentration exposure to PM2.5 was 611.
      Conclusion  The concentration of PM2.5 and excess respiratory disease mortality in Shanghai decreased obviously from 2013 to 2017. The prevention and control of air pollution achieved good results to benefit people’s health. The number of days when the concentration of PM2.5 exceeded the recommended limits in Shanghai was still relatively high during the study period. It is necessary to further strengthen the protection of people’s health and the prevention and control of diseases.

     

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