Abstract:
Objective To analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of influenza epidemics in Pudong New Area, Shanghai from 2019 to 2021 and to provide a reference basis for controlling influenza outbreaks and epidemics.
Methods Influenza incidence data in Pudong New Area, Shanghai from 2019 to 2021 were collected by street. ArcGIS 10.8 was used as the platform for data management and presentation to construct a spatial database for spatial autocorrelation analysis, and SaTScan 9.6 was used for spatio-temporal aggregation analysis.
Results A total of 10709 influenza cases were reported in Pudong New Area, Shanghai from 2019 to 2021, and the annual reported incidence of influenza was 133.08/100000, 42.63/100000, and 17.81/100000, respectively. The global autocorrelation Moran's I indexes in 2019, 2020, and 2021 were 0.255, 0.232, and 0.446 respectively, which were statistically significant (P＜0.01). Spatiotemporal scanning analysis shows that the type Ⅰ accumulation area is mainly located in the north and middle, the aggregation time is from November 30, 2019, to January 24, 2020, and the relative risk (RR) was 19.92, the log likelihood ratio (LLR) was 4878.07, P＜0.01, while the type Ⅱ accumulation area is mainly located in the northwest, and the aggregation time is from January 12, 2019, to May 3, 2019, and the RR was 5.57, the LLR was 1526.13, P＜0.01.
Conclusion Influenza cases in Pudong New Area, Shanghai from 2019 to 2021 show temporal and spatial aggregation as a whole. It is suggested to strengthen prevention and control efforts and establish immune barriers in the north and central areas of Pudong New Area.
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