2016－2021年安徽省马鞍山市水痘3种预警方法效果评价

赵志荣; 查兵; 陈健

doi:10.3784/jbjc.202208300385

2016－2021年安徽省马鞍山市水痘3种预警方法效果评价

Evaluation of early warning effect of varicella in Maanshan, Anhui, 2016–2021: based on three methods

摘要

摘要:
目的探索适合安徽省马鞍山市水痘流行的预警方法，为早期防控水痘疫情提供科学依据。
方法分别运用移动百分位数法、累积和控制图法、指数加权移动平均法对2016—2021年马鞍山市水痘监测数据进行分析，比较灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值及约登指数，评价3种方法的预警效果。
结果累积和控制图法预警效果最优，h=0.5，k=1.5时灵敏度及特异度均达100.00%；其次为移动百分位数法，P95时灵敏度及特异度分别为100.00%、94.59%；再次为指数加权移动平均法，在k=1，λ=0.15时灵敏度及特异度分别为99.33%、89.19%。
结论 3种预警方法均有良好的预警效果，其中累积和控制图法和移动百分位数法更适合基层实际运用。

Abstract:
Objective To explore appropriate early warning method of varicella epidemic in Maanshan of Anhui province, and provide evidence for the timely prevention and control of varicella epidemic.
Methods By using moving percentile method, cumulative sum control chart method, exponential weighting smoothing method, the surveillance data of varicella in Maanshan during 2016−2021 were analyzed, and the sensitivities, the specificities, the positive predictive values, the negative predictive values and Youden's indexes of the three methods were compared and evaluated.
Results The cumulative sum control chart method (h=0.5, k=1.5) had the best early warning effect with the sensitivity and specificity of 100.00% respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of moving percentile method with P95 were 100.00%, 94.59%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of exponential weighting smoothing method (k=1, λ=0.15) were 99.33%, 89.19%, respectively.
Conclusion In this study, the three early warning methods had good effects, but the moving percentile method and the cumulative sum control chart method were more suitable for the practical use at grass roots level.

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