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崔静, 张倩. 中国喉癌发病与死亡趋势分析及预测[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(8): 1000-1006. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209150406
引用本文: 崔静, 张倩. 中国喉癌发病与死亡趋势分析及预测[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(8): 1000-1006. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209150406
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Cui Jing, Zhang Qian. Analysis and prediction of incidence and mortality trends of laryngeal cancer in China[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(8): 1000-1006. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209150406
Citation: Cui Jing, Zhang Qian. Analysis and prediction of incidence and mortality trends of laryngeal cancer in China[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(8): 1000-1006. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209150406
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中国喉癌发病与死亡趋势分析及预测

Analysis and prediction of incidence and mortality trends of laryngeal cancer in China

    摘要
  • 摘要:
      目的   通过分析全球健康数据交换中心（ GHDX）中1990－2019年中国喉癌发病与死亡数据，描述发病与死亡当前趋势，采用Kalman［ELM-SVR-GM（1,1）］融合模型预测未来喉癌5年发病率与死亡率数据。
      方法   分性别、年龄利用Joinpoint Regression 计算发病率及死亡率的年平均变化百分比（AAPC），分类别描述喉癌发病与死亡趋势。 利用1990－2015年数据训练极端学习机模型、支持向量回归模型、单变量一阶灰度模型，并将结果使用Kalman融合，以2016－2019年数据检验单模型及融合模型的预测效果。 以1990－2019年数据建立预测精度最高的融合模型，对2020－2024年喉癌各类别发病率及死亡率进行预测。
      结果   1990－2019年喉癌发病率与死亡率逐年升高，发病率由1.19/10万上升至3.19/10万，死亡率由0.97/10万上升至1.42/10万。 其中，男性发病率与死亡率最高，分别平均每年上升3.93%与1.72%，15～49岁男性发病率平均每年升高最快，为2.53%。 6种序列预测中，Kalman［ELM-SVR-GM（1,1）］融合模型的平均MRE最低，其预测数据均落在95%CI内。
      结论   喉癌发病率与死亡率均呈现上升趋势，其中15～49岁男性发病率上升较快，与单模型相比，Kalman［ELM-SVR-GM（1,1）］融合模型对喉癌发病率与死亡率预测具较高预测精度，为喉癌防控提供可靠的预测方法。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   Through analysis of incidence and mortality data of laryngeal cancer in China from 1990−2019 in the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDX), the current trend of incidence and mortality was described. Kalman ELM-SVR-GM(1,1) fusion model predicts the future 5-year incidence and mortality data of laryngeal cancer.
      Methods   Joinpoint Regression was used to calculate the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) of morbidity and mortality by gender and age, and the trend of morbidity and mortality of laryngeal cancer was described by category. Extreme learning machine model, support vector regression model, and Single variable first-order gray model were trained with the data from 1990 to 2015, and the results were fused by Kalman. The prediction effect of the single model and the fusion model was tested with the data from 2016 to 2019. Finally, the fusion model with the highest prediction accuracy was established based on the data from 1990 to 2019 to predict the morbidity and mortality of various types of laryngeal cancer from 2020 to 2024.
      Results   From 1990 to 2019, the morbidity and mortality of laryngeal cancer increased year by year, morbidity increased from 1.19/100000 to 3.19/100000, and the mortality increased from 0.97/100000 to 1.42/100000. The morbidity and mortality of males were higher, with an average annual increase of 3.93% and 1.72%, respectively. The morbidity for men aged 15~59 increased at the fastest rate of 2.53% per year. Among the six sequence predictions, the KalmanELM-SVR-GM(1,1) fusion model has the lowest average MRE, and its prediction data all fall within the 95%CI.
      Conclusion   The morbidity and mortality of laryngeal cancer showed an upward trend, and the morbidity of males aged 15~49 increased rapidly. Compared with the single model, the Kalman ELM-SVR-GM(1,1) fusion model had a significant impact on the incidence of laryngeal cancer. It has high prediction accuracy and mortality prediction, and can provide a reliable prediction method for laryngeal cancer prevention and control.

     

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