武洁雯, 纪瀚然, 薛秀丽, 庞明樊, 杨昕娉, 房元圣, 赵青, 李洁, 戚晓鹏. 2022年8月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(9): 1147-1151. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209190411
引用本文: 武洁雯, 纪瀚然, 薛秀丽, 庞明樊, 杨昕娉, 房元圣, 赵青, 李洁, 戚晓鹏. 2022年8月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(9): 1147-1151. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209190411
Wu Jiewen, Ji Hanran, Xue Xiuli, Pang Mingfan, Yang Xinping, Fang Yuansheng, Zhao Qing, Li Jie, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in August 2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(9): 1147-1151. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209190411
Citation: Wu Jiewen, Ji Hanran, Xue Xiuli, Pang Mingfan, Yang Xinping, Fang Yuansheng, Zhao Qing, Li Jie, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in August 2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(9): 1147-1151. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202209190411

2022年8月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in August 2022

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2022年8月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。
      方法  根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。 对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”、“WHO各分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。
      结果  与2022年7月相比,2022年8月全球新增确诊病例下降13.2%,全球新增死亡病例增长了22.06%,西太平洋区新增确诊和死亡病例增长均最高,增长率分别为55.7%和103.2%。 全球每新增100万死亡病例用时呈现增加趋势。 日本、韩国、俄罗斯和越南是全球重点关注国家;印度尼西亚、约旦和布隆迪是各WHO分区一般关注国家;缅甸是周边特别关注国家。
      结论  全球整体疫情呈下降趋势,但死亡病例仍呈上升态势,对于全球重点关注国家要持续加强疫情监测,实时调整入境管控政策,并同相关机构建立沟通机制,互通有无,及时预警。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in August 2022 and the risk of importation.
      Methods   According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighboring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighboring countries of special concern”.
      Results   Compared with the previous month, the number of confirmed cases decreased by 13.2% and deaths increased by 22.06% globally in August 2022. The number of newly confirmed cases increased by 55.7% and deaths increased by 103.2% in the Western Pacific region. Globally, there was trend that it took much more time for a 1 million death increasing. Japan, South Korea, Russia and Vietnam were countries with global concern. Indonesia, Jordan and Burundi were the countries of general concern in each WHO sub-region. Burma was the neighboring country of special concern.
      Conclusion   The overall global epidemic was on a downward trend, while the number of deaths was still on the rise. It is necessary to continuously monitor countries with global focus, adjust entry control policies in real time, and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies to exchange information and provide timely warnings.

     

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