2011－2020年中国布鲁氏菌病时空分布特征及对部队驻训防控的启示

袁阳; 陶维光; 吕颖; 徐孟川; 刘聪敏; 高秋菊

doi:10.3784/jbjc.202210170450

2011－2020年中国布鲁氏菌病时空分布特征及对部队驻训防控的启示

Spatiotemporal distribution of brucellosis in China, 2011−2020, enlightenment to prevention and control of brucellosis in field training of troops

摘要

摘要:
目的分析我国2011—2020年布鲁氏菌病（布病）的时空分布特征，为部队驻训科学防控提供参考依据。
方法收集中国疾病预防控制中心网站报告的法定传染病疫情信息，整理2011—2020年布病疫情按月发病数。用圆形分布法分析布病发病的高峰日和高峰期，用Joinpoint回归分析法评价布病年发病率的长期趋势、变化百分比（APC）。按东、南、西、北、中5个地区及所辖省份分层分析空间分布特征。
结果我国2011—2020年布病平均发病率为3.52/10万，10年间发病趋势变化差异无统计学意义（APC=−2.12%，P=0.589）；月发病率趋势为1—5月逐月递增（APC=34.38%）、5—12月逐月递减（APC=−11.66%）且差异有统计学意义（P=0.006和0.001）；10年均存在明显季节性，其季节分布特征是全年均可发病，存在明显的高峰日和高峰期（P<0.001），各年发病高峰日不相同或不全相同（F=332.03，P<0.001），总高峰日为6月26日，总高峰期为3月21日—10月2日。 5个方向中病例数最多的是北部，其次是中部、西部，较少的是南部、东部。北部地区所辖省份内蒙古自治区发病数最多（78646例）、黑龙江省次之（45132例），其次较多的是中部地区的山西省（44155例）和西部地区的新疆维吾尔自治区（42357例）。
结论我国布病发病存在北部、中部地区高发特点，总发病高峰日为6月26日，高峰期为3月21日—10月2日，部队驻训时应重视高发地区、围绕高峰期做好布病的预防控制工作。

Abstract:
Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of brucellosis in China from 2011 to 2020 and provide the evidence for the prevention and control measures of brucellosis in field training of troops.
Methods The incidence data of brucellosis were downloaded from Chinese Center for Disease Prevention and Control. The monthly case numbers during 2011–2020 were collected. Circle distribution method was used to identify the incidence peak day and peak period of brucellosis, and Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the long-term trend of annual and monthly incidence and evaluate the long-term trend and annual percent change (APC) of the disease . The spatial distribution characteristics of brucellosis in eastern, southern, western, northern and central China were analyzed.
Results The average incidence of brucellosis was 3.52/100 000 in China from 2011 to 2020. The incidence trend of brucellosis showed no obvious change (APC=−2.12%, P=5.589). The monthly incidence increased significantly from January to May (APC=34.38%, P=0.006), but decreased significantly from May to December (APC=−11.66%), the difference was significant (P=0.001). The obvious seasonality of brucellosis was observed from 2011 to 2020, brucellosis occurred all the year round, however, the obvious peak day and peak period were observed (P<0.001), but varied from year to year (F=332.03, P<0.001). The annual peak day was 26^th June, and the peak period was from 21^st March to 2^nd October. The case number was highest in northern China, followed by central, eastern, southern and eastern China. The case number of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia (78 646 cases) and Heilongjiang (45 132 cases) in the northern China ranked top two, followed by that in Shanxi (44 155 cases) in central China and Xinjiang (42 357 cases) in western China.
Conclusion The incidence of brucellosis was high in northern and central China. The peak day was 26^th June, and the peak period was from 21^st March to 2^nd October. Troops should pay attention to the prevention and control of brucellosis in field training in the areas with high-incidence of the disease, especially in the incidence peak period. .

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