杨昕娉, 武洁雯, 纪瀚然, 庞明樊, 赵青, 房元圣, 李洁, 薛秀丽, 戚晓鹏. 2022年12月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(1): 11-15. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202301170571
引用本文: 杨昕娉, 武洁雯, 纪瀚然, 庞明樊, 赵青, 房元圣, 李洁, 薛秀丽, 戚晓鹏. 2022年12月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(1): 11-15. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202301170571
Yang Xinping, Wu Jiewen, Ji Hanran, Pang Mingfan, Zhao Qing, Fang Yuansheng, Li Jie, Xue Xiuli, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in December 2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(1): 11-15. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202301170571
Citation: Yang Xinping, Wu Jiewen, Ji Hanran, Pang Mingfan, Zhao Qing, Fang Yuansheng, Li Jie, Xue Xiuli, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in December 2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(1): 11-15. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202301170571

2022年12月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in December 2022

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2022年12月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。
      方法  根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、各大洲及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”、“各大洲一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。
      结果  与2022年11月相比,全球月新增确诊和死亡病例分别上升了38.92%和25.95%,亚洲12月每日新增确诊和死亡病例整体持续上涨。全球每新增5 000万确诊病例和50万死亡病例用时明显增加。日本、韩国、美国和法国是全球重点关注国家;巴西、阿根廷、墨西哥、毛里求斯和澳大利亚是各大洲一般关注国家;俄罗斯是周边十四国特别关注国家。
      结论  全球每日新增确诊病例和死亡病例12月中下旬后整体呈下降趋势,但个别区域和国家疫情仍较为突出。对于重点国家要持续加强疫情监测,同相关机构建立沟通机制,互通有无,及时预警。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in December 2022 and the risk of importation.
      Methods   According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in each continent and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each continent” and “neighbouring countries of special concern”.
      Results   Compared with the previous month, the number of confirmed cases and deaths respectively increased by 38.92% and 25.95% globally in February 2022. Daily new confirmed cases and deaths in the Asia continued to rise in December. The time taken for every 50 million new confirmed cases and 50 thousand deaths globally has increased significantly. Japan, Korea, America and France were countries with global concern. Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Mauritius and Australia were the countries of general concern in each continent. Russia was the countrie with special concern among the 14 neighbouring countries.
      Conclusion   The global daily new confirmed cases and deaths showed a downward trend after mid-December, but the epidemic situation was prominent in some regions and countries. It is necessary to continuously monitor countries with global focus and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies to exchange information and provide timely warnings.

     

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