郭文章, 马晓洁, 涂文校, 笃梦雪, 冯晔囡, 任婧寰, 刘倩倩, 谢怡然, 向妮娟, 施国庆. 2023年1月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(1): 7-10. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202301180001
引用本文: 郭文章, 马晓洁, 涂文校, 笃梦雪, 冯晔囡, 任婧寰, 刘倩倩, 谢怡然, 向妮娟, 施国庆. 2023年1月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(1): 7-10. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202301180001
Guo Wenzhang, Ma Xiaojie, Tu Wenxiao, Du Mengxue, Feng Yenan, Ren Jinghuan, Liu Qianqian, Xie Yiran, Xiang Nijuan, Shi Guoqing. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, January 2023[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(1): 7-10. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202301180001
Citation: Guo Wenzhang, Ma Xiaojie, Tu Wenxiao, Du Mengxue, Feng Yenan, Ren Jinghuan, Liu Qianqian, Xie Yiran, Xiang Nijuan, Shi Guoqing. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, January 2023[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(1): 7-10. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202301180001

2023年1月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, January 2023

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2023年1月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
      方法  根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
      结果  预计2023年1月突发公共卫生事件报告数将较2022年12月上升或相近。 2023年1月受奥密克戎变异株BQ、XBB和其他可能新出现亚型毒株的免疫逃逸影响,预计北半球新型冠状病毒疫情反弹可能持续。 我国内地在2023年春节期间人员流动性增加,增加新型冠状病毒在尚未感染人员中的传播风险。 1月流感病毒活动水平可能上升,以甲型流感为主的可能性大。 1月仍为非职业性一氧化碳中毒风险月份。
      结论  对新型冠状病毒感染予以特别关注,对季节性流感和非职业性一氧化碳中毒予以一般关注。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies occurring in the mainland of China or possibly imported from outside China in January 2023.
      Methods  Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) centers for disease prevention and control were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference.
      Results  The number of public health emergencies reported in January 2023 is expected to increase or be similar to that reported in December 2022. The COVID-19 rebound in the northern hemisphere is likely to continue in January 2023 due to immune escape of BQ, XBB and other possible emerging Omicron variants’ subtypes. The increased migration of people in Chinese mainland during the Spring Festival in 2023 could increase the risk of the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 among uninfected people. The level of influenza virus activity is likely to increase in January, and influenza A is likely to dominate. January 2023 remains risky month for nonoccupational carbon monoxide poisoning.
      Conclusion  Special attention is given to COVID-19, and general attention is given to seasonal influenza and nonoccupational carbon monoxide poisoning.

     

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