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李倩, 陈梦圆, 刘瑶瑶, 梁妍, 齐啸, 吴钶, 张政, 庞星火, 马建新. 北京市朝阳区乙型肝炎血清标志物年龄–时期–队列模型分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(8): 955-961. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202302200053
引用本文: 李倩, 陈梦圆, 刘瑶瑶, 梁妍, 齐啸, 吴钶, 张政, 庞星火, 马建新. 北京市朝阳区乙型肝炎血清标志物年龄–时期–队列模型分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(8): 955-961. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202302200053
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Li Qian, Chen Mengyuan, Liu Yaoyao, Liang Yan, Qi Xiao, Wu Ke, Zhang Zheng, Pang Xinghuo, Ma Jianxin. Age-period-cohort model of hepatitis B serum markers in Chaoyang district, Beijing[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(8): 955-961. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202302200053
Citation: Li Qian, Chen Mengyuan, Liu Yaoyao, Liang Yan, Qi Xiao, Wu Ke, Zhang Zheng, Pang Xinghuo, Ma Jianxin. Age-period-cohort model of hepatitis B serum markers in Chaoyang district, Beijing[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(8): 955-961. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202302200053
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北京市朝阳区乙型肝炎血清标志物年龄–时期–队列模型分析

Age-period-cohort model of hepatitis B serum markers in Chaoyang district, Beijing

    摘要
  • 摘要:
      目的  探讨北京市朝阳区常住人群乙型肝炎（乙肝）病毒血清标志物流行情况随年龄、时期、出生队列等影响因素的变化趋势。
      方法  分别于2010年、2015年、2020年按照多阶段整群随机抽样的方法，在北京市朝阳区1～75岁常住人口中进行抽样，收集其人口学信息的同时采集静脉血3～5 mL，使用化学免疫发光法进行乙肝表面抗原（HBsAg）、乙肝表面抗体（HBsAb）、乙肝核心抗体（HBcAb）等检测，运用年龄–时期–队列模型和内生因子法分别估计HBsAg阳性率、HBsAb阳性率和乙肝感染率的年龄、时期、队列等效应。
      结果  三次调查显示朝阳区常住居民HBsAg阳性率差异无统计学意义（标化率2.61%、2.50%、2.52%，P=0.830，χ2=0.374）。 乙肝感染率的年龄–时期–队列效应差异有统计学意义，随年龄增加先增大后减小、40～岁年龄组最高，队列暴露风险随出生年代增加而减小。
      结论  北京市朝阳区HBsAg阳性率处于乙肝中流行区水平；乙肝暴露风险随年龄增加先增大后减小，随出生队列的增加而减小。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To investigate the prevalence of hepatitis B serum markers in different age groups, periods and birth cohorts in Chaoyang district of Beijing.
      Methods  In 2010, 2015 and 2020, residents aged 1–75 years, who had been lived in Chaoyang District more than 6 months, were selected with multistage cluster random sampling to conduct questionnaire surveys, and blood samples (3–5 mL) were collected from them for the detections of hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg), hepatitis B virus surface antibody (HBsAb) and hepatitis B virus core antibody (HBcAb) respectively. The age-period-cohort model and intrinsic estimator algorithm were used to estimate the effects of age, period and cohort on HBsAg positive rate, HBsAb positive rate and hepatitis B infection rate respectively.
      Results  The HBsAg positive rate in residents in Chaoyang in 2010, 2015 and 2020 showed no significant differences with the standardized rates of 2.61%, 2.50% and 2.52%, respectively (P=0.830, χ2=0.374). The age-period-cohort effect on hepatitis B virus infection was significant. The hepatitis B infection rate firstly increased and then decreased with age, with the highest rate in the 40～ years old group. The exposure risk of cohort decreased with birth years.
      Conclusion  HBsAg positive rate was at a moderate level in Chaoyang. Hepatitis B exposure risk firstly increased and then decreased with age and decreased with cohort.

     

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